this post was submitted on 10 Apr 2025
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Most predictions on running out have always pointed to late 2025. It is still early 2025. Some things like tanks they ran out of last year, but most soviet stocks are deeper and so they are not yet out, and still others will last several more years at current rates.
Of course running out is not a hard line, they start with the easy things - change the oil and put it into the field. Then they move to things that need more and more effort to restore, often taking parts from something that is in even worse shape overall - then when they get to that it is even more difficult. They are also building more in their factories, so they will never run out completely, it just takes longer since their assembly lines can only move so fast - and are often limited by parts they need to import.