this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2025
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I don't care what the dev says: that thing ain't 1:4.
It's 1:4 but everytime the card is played a new set of 1:4 starts, so fuck knows what the actual odds are.
Humans are bad at probability, and that's mostly why they gamble too.
Every wheel draw is supposed to be independent (it's not totally so because computer "random" is really a pseudo-random algorithm, but close enough). So every time you draw, the odds are 1:4. Previous draws don't matter.
On an infinitely large number of draws, you'd see a 1/4 success rate. This doesn't mean you can't fail a dozen times in a row (the probability of that is (3/4)^12, about 3%... It happens).
It's always 1:4 then but that doesn't mean in 4 goes you're guaranteed a win.
Of course it does, or the odds wouldn't be 1 in 4...
If you flip a coin, you "start" a new set of 1 in 2 odds too -- that's what makes it always 50/50