this post was submitted on 06 Apr 2025
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So I wanna get this straight, because I'm saving this post: So do you think the market will stay down until a democrat is voted president? You don't think it's going to rebound within the next month, next year or four years?
If I could time the market, I wouldn’t be here discussing it with you, I’d be on a boat somewhere. If the market does rebound in the next short time period, it’ll be because these tariffs are rescinded, and we get back to sensible economic policy. In which case, it would look like market manipulation to me.
But yes, if we continue on this reckless isolationist path, I would expect the market to be down until some equally large changes are made in the other direction. And yes, that would likely be years.
I’m also not making the statement that it’ll be a Democrat in office when these damages are undone. History makes that statement for me.
But ya legit just said: "Yes, in a certain number of years the market will rebound (likely with a democrat in office, as history shows)"
I don't think things will be bad at all. Many economists have said this is pain in the short term, but in the long term, things will be stronger than before.
I'm going to buy as much stock as I can tomorrow when the market opens. Most wealthy people I know will be doing the same.
Based upon information current and trajectory, I do expect it to get much worse, and for it to be several years to recover. And I’d base “recovery” on more than just the S&P; unemployment, inflation, wealth disparity, and other markers of a healthy economy.
But I also foresee this incredibly unstable administration from possibly making moves to swing the markets in the other direction. If it does “recover” quickly, it’s because they just picked out collective pockets. Insider trading on a global scale.
Remember, these are moves made by someone who bankrupted his own casinos. Sometimes, if it walks like a duck…
And I don't agree with this. So I guess we'll find out. I actually think it's going to be a quick turnaround.
At what point, measured by whatever metric you wish, would you agree?
Before you ask, I’ll answer the inverse. I’d consider myself wrong when (if) markets, inflation, and unemployment return to what they were on Jan 19 of this year.
You’re really gut about one thing, we will find out.
Ok, star this conversation and we can revisit it in a few weeks and months. Deal?
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Hi. So about the market... Sure am glad I bought a shit-ton of stocks and crypto over last few days when the big crash happened. I'm making bank now.
How'd you do? Cuz I notice that in conversation you were assuming this was gonna be a long deep hole in the market. Opinion now?
I thought we said weeks/months? It’s been three days.
My opinion hasn’t changed. In fact, I feel more certain of it now.
Oh I know it's still super volatile. Just wondering if you had any updated thoughts based on how wild the swings are getting. Because I'm still on track and haven't changed my mind either.
The wild swings are probably allowing insider trading to rob the American public of their savings. Hardly a way to run an economy.
I’m a conservative investor. I put away what I can afford into my retirement fund, and in 20 years hopefully they’ll be enough there.
If you want to swing big, go play with crypto or forex or sports betting. Turning the world’s largest economy into an Atlantic City casino or the shittiest pyramid scheme shouldn’t be for wild speculation.
What do I think? I think you’re gonna be up 100% in the short term, losing it all in the long term. And we’ll all be poorer until such time as a progressive policymaker (god willing) takes the big seat again.
Good points.
Well I'm already retired, so I'm set there. And I never buy more than I can afford to lose, so even if it all went south, I'd be good.
But I also don't hold on to stuff long. I take my profit quick. I buy when it's low, as soon as it's high enough for me to make decent profit after fees, I sell. I don't just hold and hold for things like this. Obviously I have long term investments, and those I don't bother with.
This is just my vegas money, so it's been mostly fun to watch.
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