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this post was submitted on 05 Apr 2025
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This is so important.
An aspect of post scarcity is that people shouldn't have to work. AGI might allow that; LLM is starting to fill some niches.
The problem is how it's being done. Rather than benefiting society as a whole, it's enriching a few. In an ideal world, people whose jobs are replaced should get a stipend. We should all be eagerly awaiting that time when our jobs are replaced and we get a paycheck - maybe a little reduced - but now we're free to pursue our interests. If that means doing your old job, only now it's bespoke, artisan work, great.
The other missing factors are free energy and limitless resources; but we're making progress on energy, but resources are an issue with no solution on the horizon. Plus, we're killing the planet by just existing, so there's that.
We have a lot of problems to solve but AI is part of the solution, except that it's being done wrong. And expensively.
We've got tons of resources, and the means the produce more. The problem is that's not going to make some people lots and lots of money, so they don't do it.
Scarcity is not a problem of "can't" right now, it's a problem of "won't".
We're going to run out of oil in the next 30 years, and it's not just cars that will affect. The mass produced factory farmed food that feeds 90% of the world's population is utterly dependent on fossils fuels. There are almost no "Tesla" giant combines. And the trains that transport food to the cities run on fossil fuels. Cities will collapse. Air transport and ocean shipping will cease, destroying the global economy.
Many of the remaining oil reserves are in deep water, which are each and every one a man made environmental catastrophe waiting to happen, and as the easy reserves dry up, offshore drilling will become more common.
Meanwhile, we're running out of precious metals needed to make cheap consumer electronics. And while we're finding new reserves and the finite limit may not be a close, as computers and phone components become more expensive, and only the well-off will be able to afford them. The income disparity we see within our countries will become global, with entire countries falling behind.
And then there's fresh water. This will become a bigger problem as time goes on, and water wars will become large scale events.
We're living on a finite planet of finite resources. Our only hope for space exploration is a couple of commercial companies run by the 21st century equivalent of robber barons. If we do start mining asteroids for materials, those resources still be utterly monopolized by a single handful of individuals.
I don't understand your belief that we still have plenty of resources, when the scientific community has been warning that we're running through our reserves ever faster, for years.
Again, those things are a matter of "won't" rather than "can't". It costs "too much" to find alternatives, so companies don't. Funding for alternate resources simply don't exist at the level that's necessary because it doesn't make anyone lots and lots of money.
Those scientists are warning that we should start looking for alternatives, not that we should give up because it's simply not possible to find an alternative.
I understand that you don't want to look further than that, but I judge you for it. Maybe stop taking things at face value and look a little deeper.
There is a distinct difference between believing that we can't, or should give up - which is what you're accusing me of doing - and recognizing the reality that we aren't and by all evidence, won't. Certainly not before it's too late.
That's... literally what I've been saying. Have you been ignoring that? My entire point was about motivation, not ability. Your entire point seems to be that there's no other options and nothing we can do about it. About how it's the end of the world and we can't do anything about it.
Sure, people aren't right now, but a big part of that is because people aren't accepting why. You can go on and on and on about how we're not, but unless you put the least amount of thought into why and how to do something meaningful about it, it's just doom-posting to trick people into thinking we should all just give up.
So. If you want to prove to me, or others, or even to yourself, that that's not true... maybe start thinking about what we can do, or just shut up. Because we don't need more people talking about how it's all pointless and there's nothing else we can do. We get plenty of that every day from people much smarter than random people on the internet.
Ok. Fuck you.