Collapse

763 readers

29 users here now

This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.

Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.

RULES

1 - Remember the human

2 - Link posts should come from a reputable source

3 - All opinions are allowed but discussion must be in good faith.

4 - No low effort, high volume and low relevance posts.

Related lemmys:

founded 11 months ago

MODERATORS

[email protected]

Agriculture in the Crosshairs: Breadbasket Collapse at 2°C and 3°C (collapseofindustrialcivilization.com)

submitted 4 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

5 comments fedilink hide all child comments

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (2 children)

"Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming."

https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010

This is a paper that relates to this topic. They are looking at multiple breadbasket crop failures that happen in multiple regions and different staple crops at the exact same time.

Under 2° of warming, for example corn crops go from failures eveey 15 years to a failed crop frequency once every 2 or 3 years. Rain and temperature issues also can reduce wheat and soybean and rice crops. Eventually these uncorrelated events have a 100% chance of lining up and all landing on the same year across multiple regions.

I guess the big idea of the paper is that a warming planet won't be this even dependable reduction in crop yields but a series of major unpredictable crop failure and food shocks.

I think that means that withi a 45% reduction (as in the main article) we should think of that as a rolling average. Some years could be very bad and others less dire. But expect major instability.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 weeks ago

Even just with the normal variability and demand vs levels of carryover stocks from year to year , it only takes 3 standard bad crop years to get us into a full blown serious global food crisis.

people are sleeping on this as one of the biggest risks, its not a matter of if, its a matter of when.

load more comments (1 replies)