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Poland only has enough supplies to fight war “for a week or two”, says security chief
(notesfrompoland.com)
this post was submitted on 27 Mar 2025
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If Russia attacks Poland directly then half the planet is about to turn to glass within those first couple of weeks
US is not going to respond and if UK or France were to use tactical nukes they’d glass Poland to create a natural barrier. That was the plan during Cold War.
i think there was an update or two since
also the minimum deterrence always kept up by brits is that there's at all times enough nukes in submarines to destroy moscow. french have some more fine-grained options
Calculus didn’t change and we’re quickly regressing from things we took for granted. Paris will not nuke Moscow over Warsaw, Tallin or even Helsinki.
Poland was part of the Warsaw Pact during the cold war... the overall calculus that tactical nukes would be used against an overwhelming invading land army might not have changed, but Paris absolutely would nuke Moscow these days if Warsaw was attacked with strategic nukes. They have little other choice than that if their strategic deterrance is supposed to be worth anything.
As for Tallin... given the geographic location of it, it is highly unlikely that Russia would nuke it.
I wish I shared your optimism but reality calls for a cold shower.
Anybody glassing Poland means things got really bad but ethics didn’t stop those plans in the 80s and I think existential threat would be enough to go back to the basics.
Well, you are kinda supporting my argument. This isn't about optimism, but military neccessity. If things get that bad that Russia nukes Warsaw, Paris best response is to nuke Moscow regardless who is in power at that time (and with near certainty Russia would try nuking Warsaw and Paris the same time if it ever came to that).
Of course conventional attacks are a different story, where I share your pessimism that western Europe might decide to do too little too late.
In those old plans nuclear powers rarely nuke each other. In case of „7 days to Rhine” Russia spared France and UK for an obvious reason - they expected them to not retaliate unless attacked directly. It would be logical to assume nuclear powers prefer to use their arsenal proactively and far away rather than at their doorstep and as a last resort. Direct retaliation means further escalation which is more risky.
You are aware that french nuclear doctrine famously includes the nuclear warning shot? As in, nuke something and tell them "keep coming closer to France and the next one hits your capital".
Nuclear doctrine is whatever you decide to show your enemies with whatever intention you might hold. Declassified plans from Cold War show that Russians assumed as much.