this post was submitted on 25 Mar 2025
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TL;DR: all the experts say "yes".
I don't have a strong opinion on the topic, but my non-expert opinion is "probably not". It would have been outright "no" before reading this article, but some of those arguments were actually persuasive.
It isn't that I want a weak military, it's that I see so many priorities the government can be spending on and defense still isn't at the top of that list for me.
I personally wonder if cultural exchange (and similar programs) would provide an equivalent amount of regional security on the basis of the relevant countries liking us more. It wouldn't be a direct replacement for actually having a national defense, but man military hardware can be expensive AF lol.
It isn't a matter of liking us. I don't think any nation sees Australia as a threat, other than as a staging ground for US forces. At the same time, I don't think any nation is seriously considering attacking Australia. That's why I don't really prioritise spending more on our defense.
But, 20-30 years from now? I have no idea what the future looks like. I wouldn't want to look up suddenly 20 years from now and be like Russia in 1912.
One of the things brought up in the original article's arguments was deterrence, which hey I guess is fair enough on a long-term time scale where the future is unknown and some kind of "real" warfare (not just peacekeeping / anti-terror type stuff) involving Australia isn't impossible to think up. But deterrence (due to non-trivial military power) is only one way to cool off a potential conflict; as far as I know it's not like we're particularly worried about say New Zealand being at war with us -- even on a long-term time scale -- and it's because we're bros 👉👈