this post was submitted on 10 Nov 2026
1047 points (99.5% liked)

science

29877 readers
412 users here now

A community to post scientific articles, news, and civil discussion.

dart board;; science bs

rule #1: be kind

lemmy.world rules

founded 3 years ago
MODERATORS
 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/54245880

The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.

Between 2019 and 2025, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels grew by about 0.8 percent annually, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. But 2026 is set to buck that trend: high oil prices, as well as the continued rise of green technology—solar power, wind and electric cars—will cause a “short-term” 0.4 percent drop, according to the study.

“The high petrol prices following the war in Iran are reducing oil use and keeping emissions low,” says the study’s lead author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia in England. “But that’s not the whole story: The expansion of renewable energy has progressed a lot in recent years, led by China. And [along with electric vehicles], this is offsetting two thirds of the growing demand for energy.”

With all sources of carbon considered, including deforestation, total global CO2 emissions are set to continue increasing.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] Lemmyoutofhere@lemmy.ca 204 points 2 days ago (9 children)

The only real way to fight climate change is to make fossil fuels more expensive than alternatives. The vast majority won’t do it for environmental reasons.

[–] realitista@lemmus.org 139 points 2 days ago (7 children)

It's really absurd that we are still subsidizing fossil fuels rather than increasing the tax rates on them.

[–] acosmichippo@lemmy.world 83 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (5 children)

well france tried that and people rioted. Trump (unintentionally) made gas prices skyrocket and just caused one of the most lopsided elections in modern US history. Asking middle and especially lower class people to pay more for energy, even just in the short term, runs the risk of turning them against eco-conscious legislation.

So I think a better strategy is just more incentives and funding for clean energy.

[–] snooggums@piefed.world 30 points 2 days ago (4 children)

Trump (unintentionally) made gas prices skyrocket and just caused one of the most lopsided elections in modern US history.

To be honest, there is a massive difference between prices going up because of taxes and going up because someone started a stupid war and told everyone costs were going down.

[–] ch00f@lemmy.world 34 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Do you think all of the people who flipped blue really care about the war? They certainly didn't before gas prices went up.

load more comments (1 replies)
[–] acosmichippo@lemmy.world 10 points 2 days ago

I'm not sure I agree, I don't think most people consider the causes that deeply. That's how we ended up with trump in the first palce.

load more comments (2 replies)
[–] halcyoncmdr@piefed.social 11 points 2 days ago (3 children)

Asking middle and especially lower class people to pay more for energy, even just in the short term, runs the risk of turning them against eco-conscious legislation.

It's not just about the ones that can't afford to pay more for the energy, there also usually isn't a viable alternative available for them to even look at moving toward instead. It's one thing to make a decision pay more for convenience, if you have another option. If there is no other option, you just feel like you're getting personally fucked.

In the US, all of the public transit infrastructure outside of like 4 major cities is dogshit. There may be a bus, that doesn't go everywhere, runs at odd times, and is poorly maintained. Technically available, but if you need to travel across town to work, takes 3 hours one way to do so through 2 different transfer stations. And since everything was built around personal vehicles, things are also not within walking distance even if you are lucky enough to work from home or have something closer.

Having a car is a necessity for most of the country. Without having viable alternatives, increased fuel prices aren't going to actually fix anything, just turn people even more against any changes.

This is why things like EVs are a good middle ground with the current lack of public infrastructure available nationwide. It's an easy drop in replacement that's a better ongoing option, with a side effect of also costing less to maintain along the way.

[–] SpaghettiMaster@feddit.uk 10 points 2 days ago

There usually is an alternative. I watch people richer than me, using more energy, complaining about the costs and how much they are struggling.. Just don't use all that energy then. But they won't.

But that conversation seems to be impossible. They just say they NEED it. I don't think they care, even the slightest inconvenience is too much.

Its not just energy, its almost every expense in modern life. Overconsumption won't bring you happiness, working longer to buy more stuff isn't going to improve your life.

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

There’s still a choice. They can decide whether to drive a 15 year old pickup or a 15 year old Toyota. They have choices in how often and how far they drive. They have choices in shared transportation. Some of those choices are immediate and some build up until a bigger decision.

I’m old enough to remember car pools over commuting alone, shared shopping trips, people managing even when not everyone had a car. I remember a before time where not every adult had a car and not every car was a full sized pickup

[–] acosmichippo@lemmy.world 6 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

agreed, and a lot of people have no choice for the fuel used to power their domiciles. If you want solar you have to own your home, not have a restrictive HOA, and have the cash (or credit rating for a decent loan) to fund it.

[–] wonderingwanderer@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

That's true if you're all-or-nothing on residential solar, but if you're interested in making any small changes you can, a 30W solar panel is enough to charge smart phones and power banks. They come in portable versions with USB hookups and aren't crazy expensive. Good for emergencies at the very least.

On a slightly larger scale, you can find portable power stations ranging from 500W to 2400W max continuous output, usually with built-in MPPT controllers and power inverters so you can charge them with solar and they can provide AC power. 100W panels are enough for the lower end of these, and can be daisy-chained in parallel to output higher wattage (parallel keeps the correct voltage while increasing amps; don't do series unless you need higher voltage, which isn't likely on this scale).

It's not the same as running your whole house on it, but it's better than say a backup generator, and the larger power stations can run most kitchen appliances. Or some you can use as a UPS switch, but only if it's rated for that.

So there are options. By no means perfect. We'll need more sweeping legislation to make residential solar more viable for more households.

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

And personal solar really isn’t the entire goal anyway. Symbiotic goals are appliance electrification and the most cost effective approach is when you need to anyway.

I installed a heat pump in my family room ….. because the air conditioner died, and a heat pump was the same price as a new air conditioner. I still heat with gas when it gets cold but now I also have a cheaper, cleaner option in the “shoulder” seasons.

I don’t have solar, but if I could afford it, I would now also benefit even more from it

[–] wonderingwanderer@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 day ago

Yeah, that's why if we had incentivized it more starting several years ago, we could have made more progress by now. But we did the opposite.

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

Not everything is an immediate decision. At some point renters need to renew, nomads need to relocate, people have to find a different personal vehicle: there are larger decision points. We can’t be afraid of driving those larger decisions over time

You can’t claim something is useless if people cant change their habits immediately, but they probably have a yearly apartment lease and there may be opportunities every year.

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

There’s always disagreement between the carrot and the stick. It’s high time for both: the carrot or renewable energy and EVs and the stick of higher gas prices. We’ve wasted hundreds of billions of dollars over the last few decades trying everything except renewables: it’s time to focus on building out the obvious answer rather than finding yet another way to avoid reality while making fossil fuel executives even wealthier

But we had those incentives

  • we had incentives to build out a solar industry, but no one had the patience when it’s more profitable to just let Chinese companies do it
  • we had incentives for wind, and we do have huge generating capacity in a few areas but we were finally getting to building our wind for less resource rich areas (offshore wind in the northeast).
  • we had incentives for companies to invest in wind and solar and retooling for new technology. Spent and thrown out before any results: it’s just more profitable to buy from China
  • we had incentives for consumers to adopt solar - they were claiming a payback period of only like 5 years even here where there’s no sun
  • we had incentives to make EVs cost comparable to gas cars, to guarantee a market to manufacturers and to help Manufacturers transition. It was incentive driven for all sides

I hate to be cynical of incentives but our entire economy of the last 12 years is the “face eating leopard” economy. Continuing to step on our own feet as we stumble drunkenly down the stairs is an underrated cause of Chinas success

[–] wonderingwanderer@sopuli.xyz 5 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Yeah, if we could have been building out the renewable energy infrastructure since 2021 like we needed to be doing, then by now it could already be a viable enough alternative that we would be able to end fossil fuel subsidies without too many people feeling the pinch, and even the stragglers would climb on board the green energy express shortly after. At that point it would be time to start ramping up taxes on fossil fuels to disincentivize it for the billionaires who would be insulated from the original price jumps.

But no, fucken Joe Manchin had to side with republicans on blocking the original Green New Deal so that we ended up with a fucking neutered compromise.

So now we have two roads in front of us: we can start building the renewable energy infrastructure and converting the grid. Or we can continue feeling the squeeze tighter and tighter each year until the price of oil is the least of our worries as food and water become scarcer and scarcer.

Choose wisely!

[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)
[–] wonderingwanderer@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I'm honestly starting to reassess whether it's even worth it to put energy into a strong primary push, or if I should just sit it out and let it all crumble under its own weight.

But I know if I choose the latter, even then I won't have the satisfaction of saying "I told you so," because people will never learn from their mistakes, and they'll still sideline voices like mine to be drowned out by the deafening sounds of handwringing and placating lipservice.

So reminding them that present circumstances were predicted years ago and that we should have listened then, they'll just say "that isn't helpful right now," and then go back to their corporate-sponsored thinktanks who have been telling them to ignore it all along the way.

Maybe my energy would be wiser spent doing doomsday prep.

We'll see how things go starting in January, and reassess by 2028.

load more comments (1 replies)
[–] Wildmimic@anarchist.nexus 6 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Yep, massive expansion of solar, wind, geothermal, tidal and maybe nuclear power for some base load in combination with large amounts of battery capacity is the way to go. General enforcement of electrification is needed. Every instance where hydrocarbons are simply used for their energy content instead of their chemical properties has to be replaced by the grid (outside of emergency measures). I am sure that this would be more than enough to get global emissions under control, and would also lead to more geopolitical stability.

load more comments (1 replies)
[–] Maeve@kbin.earth 3 points 2 days ago

The subsidies go to rich oil barons, too, not poor people who have to work til age 67.

[–] VeganBtw@piefed.social 9 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Same thing for subsidizing cow milk instead of taxing it, and making the alternatives be cheaper, because they are.

[–] Axolotl_cpp@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 1 day ago (3 children)

With food is harder, especially cow milk which has no real substitute with the same flavor

load more comments (3 replies)
[–] modus@lemmy.world 4 points 2 days ago

The US is run by the companies approving and receiving those subsidies and tax breaks. The same companies who virtually refuse to manufacture electric vehicles.

[–] SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca 8 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Canada tried that and voters revolted. Very few people actually give a single fuck about C02 levels.

[–] pilferjinx@piefed.social 5 points 2 days ago

We still have corporate carbon taxes in effect, for now. I know there were talks about carving out exceptions for certain provinces that were hit hard by them but I haven't kept up on that thread.

load more comments (2 replies)
[–] binarytobis@lemmy.world 21 points 2 days ago (6 children)

I’ve always been of the opinion that gas should be more expensive. This idea has been unpopular in pretty much every group I’ve exposed it to.

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

You’ll find it more popular here. There are at least several of us.

[–] thedarkfly@feddit.org 2 points 1 day ago

That's because they have no convenient and affordable alternative. "A developed country is where rich people take the train, not where poor people drive cars".

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 7 points 2 days ago

I'm trying to popularize the term "imagination deficit disorder".

load more comments (3 replies)
[–] prole@lemmy.blahaj.zone 6 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

It's the only way we got rid of CFCs

Capitalism will kill us all because it's profitable to do so

[–] reksas@sopuli.xyz 5 points 2 days ago

the corporations need to be brought on their knees. its either that or its us on our knees in the end.

[–] chronicledmonocle@lemmy.world 18 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (3 children)

I don't get it. I live in Texas and even with the brain dead $300 registration fee tacked on for EVs and the significantly cheaper gas prices compared to the rest of the US, it's still multiple factors of cheaper to drive an EV.

I bought a 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV. Even with excessive use charges from the electric company and the $300 annual registration spread out over 12 months, I spend around 1/3 to 1/2 of what my Prius cost in gas I had before this vehicle. And that was a PRIUS. I'm also not counting maintenance/repair items that only apply to a gas vehicle, like the head gasket it blew up, or the oil changes, or the coil pack that died in it.....

I used 375 kWh last month charging. My electric rate is $0.075 per kWh until I use more than 400 kWh in a month. Then it goes to $0.096. Even assuming that all of my charging was at the higher rate, that's $61 for the entire month of driving, if I break out the $300 annual fee across all 12 months. To drive the same ~1500 in my Prius V that got 38MPG on average between city and highway (according to the dash), that cost around $162 per month. And that's in Texas, where gas is $3.25 a gallon right now. This is essentially worst case scenario for an EV, given all of the things against it, and it's still barely above 1/3 of the cost.

Imagine someone coming from a fully gas SUV, in a state where gas is more expensive, where the registration fee isn't 3x of the income of gas taxes, etc. It would blow that person's mind that, instead of paying $50-60 per fill up one to two times a week, they could drive an EV for that much FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH.

[–] qqq@lemmy.world 3 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (3 children)

It's the sticker price of EVs that is the concern for people. Maybe also the price to install a charger at home? If car manufacturers would make more affordable EVs I bet more people would happily get one when they need a new car

I bought my 2023 Bolt EUV used still with the manufacturer warranty for $15.5k. Not cheap, but certainly not insanely high either.

As for charger, most people don't need more than a standard wall outlet provides at 115V 12 amps. I charge mine on a 230V plug at 24 amps, which most people can accomplish easily with even an existing 100 amp service panel.

[–] bss03@infosec.pub 2 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Maybe also the price to install a charger at home?

I have owned an EV for 7+ years and do not have a home charger, but rarely charge anywhere else. You can charge them at 8A 120V overnight and still get more range than most people use most days. I mostly charge at 12A 120V.

If car manufacturers would make more affordable EVs I bet more people would happily get one when they need a new car

Maybe. The lack of BEVs (or even PHEVs) in the US market is certainly woeful.

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

I wish we could make the entire US watch that Technology Connections video. He does a very good job of explaining how cheap charging solutions are enough for most of us

I did install a level 2 charger

  • it was similar cost to installing a stove circuit, plus $500 for the charger. Really not that bad
  • there are several cheaper options that would have been sufficient
  • after three years it’s probably paid for itself

Don’t get me wrong, a full 48a level 2 charger is a great convenience, but minimally different from, say, repurposing an electric dryer circuit

[–] Tja@programming.dev 4 points 2 days ago (1 children)

On top of that it's more convenient (if you have a garage) and more enjoyable to drive (quieter, better acceleration).

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Damn, jelly. I Also calculate my EV as cutting my gas cost in half but it would be harder to beat a Prius when my electric rate is $0.36 per kWh

It would blow that person’s mind that, …. they could drive an EV for that much FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH.

Surprisingly this doesn’t seem to work. Maybe it’s too abstract for many? I still get responses like “but damn that would really hit your electric bill”. I mean sure but it’s only half.

[–] chronicledmonocle@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

You sure it's not $0.036? That seems excessively high.

If that's actually what you're paying, I'd seriously consider getting solar to offset the costs.

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 1 points 20 hours ago

Yeah it’s pretty damn high, and that’s why I’ve been annoyed that Trump keeps trying to kill our offshore wind farms.

I looked into solar a few times and regret not doing so before the incentives were killed. They are still claiming seven year payback based on electricity prices and state incentives, but that upfront cost is a killer.

The solar installer industry is still full of scammers and greasy salesmen. Every negative stereotype you’ve seen about used car salesmen is so much more true of solar installer sales. Every time I’d barely get started in the process and already feel violated. It was such an unpleasant experience I was never willing to complete the process

[–] Rhaedas@fedia.io 7 points 2 days ago (3 children)

Cut the subsidies they get, and put an environmental tax on its use. The problem is a lot of that will be passed to consumers and it will hit individuals more, so once again large companies won't notice.

[–] Reverendender@sh.itjust.works 8 points 2 days ago (4 children)

That’s the point though. When they pass the costs on to consumers, we significantly reduce our fossil fuel usage, and actively seek out alternatives.

load more comments (4 replies)
load more comments (2 replies)
load more comments (3 replies)