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If governments start shutting down instances, phew... I suspect that will be a pretty bleak time to be alive. Or just bleaker, haha. 😑
Sneakernets, where people trade data on USB sticks and MicroSD cards (I remember back in the day reading about people smuggling data in and out of countries in fake coins with a MicroSD inside). Air-gapped LANs (not internet connected) that cover neighborhoods with people managing local web servers and services for the community. I have probably over 20 services running on a handful of physical servers, most of them old, most of them underpowered, but they could serve a small community on a local network easily.
I honestly think that's where people will end up to escape the corporate internet.
I have thought about airgapped networks for a long time, there is nothing to stop peoplw from buying networking equipment and setting up a secondary network that is completely physically separated from the normal internet.
Used enterprise networking and server gear exists and is fairly cheap.
It doesn't even need to be enterprise, honestly.
I run a rather significant local network with off the shelf consumer stuff and OpenWrt.
Hmm. What's your scenario for the "corporate internet" killing off the Fediverse? Deliberate botnet attacks and/or overwhelming the instances with spam / junk bot accts?
I don't think it's necessarily escaping places like the Fediverse, but the internet as it exists... I don't know if there's a way to "heal" it or stop it from getting worse, honestly. So I very much feel like there's opportunity for people to "disconnect" while also being somewhat connected. Local websites tailored to community needs as opposed to corporate ones.
I mean, if "Big Tech Won't Broadcast Your Dissent" and the costs of maintaining alternative communities rise, due to the cost of renting servers, it may just make more sense to make a local intranet with your buddies who all have their own Jellyfin servers too, and that becomes a community resource so nobody in the complex needs a streaming service. I mean I have RomM, which allows me to play tons and tons of old video game ROMs in a web browser, so that could become a community resource, too.
There could be community forums and community weblogs, allowing people to update each other on new developments in the community, and updates to community servers, scheduled maintenance times etc. Sneakernets could share local community updates among different local LANs in the area, and share files via traditional file transfer from one disk to another so other communities can get new entertainment, etc.
Especially with Microsoft demanding everyone have a TPM 2.0 chip for Windows 11 there is currently a lot of shunted hardware that could easily be turned into local server stacks and then the only cost is replacement parts if things go down and the regular cost of electricity and maybe a handful of uninterruptible power supplies, and that's only really if you're on a system that power loss could cause problematic data corruption.
TL;DR: Seizing the means of communication may be just as important as seizing the means of production. In this case we don't "seize it" we make our own parallel systems.
Oh I forgot to include this:
https://loriemerson.net/2024/08/31/a-brief-history-of-barbed-wire-fence-telephone-networks/
This is piece on the history of Barbed Wire Phone networks which were an early way to roll out local phone access in remote areas without rolling out much infrastructure. It essentially would be an "always on" community line. No ringer, you just pick up your local receiver, and see if anyone's on any of the other receivers to talk. So if you had 3+ receivers connected to the barbed wire network, all of those would be able to be part of a big community phone call.
This was actually was initially got me thinking about these ideas and in particular how especially dissenting protest groups must stop trying to communicate using the tools of their oppressors. Secured messaging isn't enough, we need to have messaging entirely removed from the wider, corporate and government controlled internet. Build parallel communications systems and begin to use those instead.
Oh, I also forgot to include LoRa texting for remote areas as well:
https://www.howtogeek.com/esp32-and-lora-module-let-you-text-off-grid-with-no-internet-or-cell-signal/
The point being that all these rely on building out our own networks instead of relying on all the privately owned fiber, cable, dsl, and ethernet that exists between us and our destination on the internet. We can't avoid passing through someone else's property on the wider internet, which makes it more at risk of interception and possible decryption. Removing it from the wider internet and closing the loop tighter resolves this.
Every "hop" to a new server online between you and your destination is a place where your data has been replicated to be able to pass through. Parallel networks avoids this entirely.
How do air-gapped LANs that span neighborhoods work?
A lot of managed switches, a lot of ethernet cable, maybe some point-to-point WiFi connections for longer distances, and local DNS and DHCP servers that have failovers for redundancy. You technically don't need a router because routers are for connecting different networks, and if it's not connected to the internet, as long as you have local DHCP and DNS, you're kind of golden for local services. You can even have internal TLS for local security. I do that with Caddy, it's dead simple, and the certificates are locally generated for a 10 year period. I'm connected to the internet but I don't expose any of these services to the internet, just my local network.
With a little more work, you could set up a VoIP server too so people could connect their phones that don't have cellular service and use a VoIP app to be able to call anyone in the neighborhood by their VoIP number.
We are headed there, sadly.
I don't know... as long as you have corporate social media, I'm thinking most people will remain there out of convenience, precedent, and buy-in. Which would leave places like the Fediverse small fry that probably wouldn't be going after statistically. Also, the decentralised aspect means that you'd have to get much closer to a 1984 situation for this to be a serious concern, with instances currently spread out all over the world.
But yeah, I agree that "1984" is certainly on the near-horizon of strong possibileries.