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What is the optimal strategy for random guesses for multiple choice questions? (retrofed.com)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by scallisto@retrofed.com to c/nostupidquestions@lemmy.ca

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If you know that each option (ABCD) is roughly 25% likely to occur, is it a better bet to guess all Cs (guaranteeing around 25%, probably a fail in most tests), guess 25% of each option randomly (so if there were 20 questions, 5 for each option), or do something in between?

Or what if you know that some option are more likely than others, let's say C has a higher chance of occurring than ABD. Should you go for all Cs or should you mix in some ABD?

And if you have already completed 50% (or any other amount) of the test already with presumably correct answers, is it better to guess all Cs for the ones you missed or to distribute them so that there are 25% ABCD each (or a different ratio if you know some are more likely on average)

edit: I'm not planning on random guessing every option on any future tests, and certainly not counting every option to ensure a spread out distribution (that would take up lots of time!). It's just a silly probability question

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[–] scallisto@retrofed.com 2 points 1 week ago

I actually went to a competition where you got 0 marks for an incorrect answer (so no negative marking), BUT you got 0.25 marks for leaving the question blank, so you had to be strategic on whether you guess (e.g. if you're confident it's 50:50) or not answer. I imagine the boundaries for the awards are adjusted to account the 25% being the "baseline"