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This breaks down pretty quickly under scrutiny.
Germany steps up military, probably.
Russia claims it's 1941 again: not really... 1940s Germany was already invading, and it was more than Russia involved in that. There's currently amicable relations between them and the UK, France, Spain, Italy, etc...
? There's so much cross nation communication. Plus there's official venues to address issues in the EU, UN, etc...
Not reflected in the actual trade numbers... Except for the US where there are nonsense tariffs changing at the whim of an orange clown. Overall international trade is continuing fine and mostly recovered from the COVID dip: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/growth-of-global-trade?time=2000..latest
Is Russia - this same Russia whose stated reasons for invading Ukraine require less scrutiny than any of my claims to be revealed as utter bullshit - really so above exaggerating a threat to justify a response that is in Putin's best interests versus everyone's? And what about the AfD and their nationalist tendencies?
I saw that Sweden(?)'s Far Right party got spanked despite early polls much to my relief, but there's still way too much Trump-style fascism out there to say that any of what this guy laid out is genuinely far-fetched. The scenario he lays out complete with maps is disturbingly feasible.
I personally hold on to the hope that there are enough genuinely good people in the world to be able to avert the worst of things for those I know personally, but as first-worlders we have a very different perspective on just how fucked up the world actually is from, say, kids in Gaza. You know, not living in a warzone which is actively trying to genocide us with a secondary goal of bringing about the literal end of the world as they believe it because sky daddy.
My synopsis was poor and that's entirely on me, but the video is worth watching even if you don't like the interviewer or the premise. Which I don't. It is all terribly uncomfortable to examine as he has. Which is why its worth watching.
I'm skeptical and (perpetually) short on time; but I'll queue it up and give it an initial opportunity to make a case.
My stance going in is that Russia's failed invasion and the US debacle in Iran make future aggression less likely (at least for the short term). I'd argue it's similar to how the US "war" in Vietnam diminished the US appetite for war ~50 wars ago.
War is costly to direct participants; only Israel seems to have a continued appetite for it among developed nations... Putin's once solid grip on power is now showing significant cracks, Trump & republicans currently look to lose some share of electoral power due to their policies (which involves more than just Iran, but that seems to be the single biggest polling impact).
I'll certainly acknowledge the tensions in the middle east could easily inflate to become a larger conflict. Hopefully the wiser people prevail over the "strongmen" who somehow keep getting elected.
I can appreciate the skepticism, and I wouldn't have pressed the issue if I didn't appreciate both your approach and your position.
Regarding the war in Vietnam, that was back when we had leaders who were bothered by things like optics and polling. Nixon was a crook, lied about it, got caught, was impeached, felt shame, resigned during that era. That precedent clearly doesn't apply here.
The issue with Israel/Iran is that the US is feeding on all sides of it. Trump is doing whatever the hell he's doing and in order to (in his mind) save face, he's gotta do something big. So the oil pipeline to the rest of the world gets shut down. Manufacturing and shipping slows by default. What shipping does occur is under assault by Houthis and the IRGC because hurting trade hurts the US.
It's a very ugly cascade web effect.
And once more, thank you for hearing me out through my own verbal static.