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Fatigued by a war that officially doesn't exist in Russia..
The war can end in the next hour if Russia decides to piss off behind their internationally recognised borders, still leaving them with more land than they'll ever need.
Putin can't back down. His strongman image wouldn't survive it, and I'm pretty sure the rest of him wouldn't either. He'll have to be dragged out of this war kicking and screaming, and his people realising that somehow, after all this time, Ukraine still has options to escalate, is a chunky chip off that facade of strength.
That argument never convinces me. Look at Trump: he started a war and now ended up with a deal that is worse than before. Yet that doesn't stop him of spinning that as a great success. He "stopped Iran that was just about to get nuclear weapons", or whatever he'll say to make it look good.
Same goes with Putin. He survived starting this war and ruining his country, he'll survive stopping it, by making something up that can be told as a success. For example: "we made sure the Russian people in these areas are safe. Now we invite them to get to safety in Mother Russia and live a peaceful life. We protect our people". Or whatever he seems fit. He can spin it however he likes, they'll follow.
Not so fast!
What about reparation?
What about returning abducted people?
Pissing off from anywhere in Ukraine (including Crimea ofc) is simply not enough.
Letting them off the hook this easy sends the message that anyone can invade random countries and in the worst case just doesn't conquer any land.
We can start with all of their frozen assets abroad and see how much is left on the bill. Then we can transfer all of Ukraine's debts that they've incurred throughout the war and hold the kremlin liable for paying for them. I suppose we can include on that tab whatever costs related to reconstruction are left over after using those frozen assets.
How countries are going to collect that debt from russia is anybody's guess, but no sanctions should be lifted until they're paid in full (only after reconstruction in Ukraine is finished, of course).
As for returning abducted people, yes, absolutely that should unconditionally be a part of the agreement. But getting russia to agree to that will be tricky. So you're right, they don't get to just back out and piss off back behind their borders without settling a few accounts.
But,
That's... already happened. See Israel in Palestine; the US in Iran, Venezuela. The precedent has already been set. We've already shown chauvinist dictators what they can get away with.
The only way to undo that is to hold all three of them accountable. Which is honestly not likely without triggering a nuclear holocaust; at least until major internal changes of administration when it'll all be swept under the rug anyway. The best we can hope for is for the individuals responsible to be held accountable. Heads of state as well as all their cronies.
This is where things will get difficult: Of course you're right and Ukraine would be entitled to reparations etc.
But the question is, who would actually enforce that, if anyone? The U.S.? Certainly not, since there’s a Putin puppet in the White House. China? Surely has absolutely no interest in punishing wars of aggression, given that they’ve more or less obviously set their sights on Taiwan? Europe? Would probably be happy to provide money for reconstruction, but won’t deploy its own soldiers to annex Russian territory as a substitute for reparations...
That leaves only Ukraine itself, and its soldiers are war-weary after years of conflict, even though they’re currently winning, as they should. I don’t believe Ukraine could justify an offensive against Russian territory, either domestically or in terms of foreign policy… especially since such an offensive would naturally entail greater losses than the successful defense of its homeland.
So in theory, you’re right, but in practice, I don’t know who would be able to enforce that, even if Russia withdraws from Ukraine. Being right and getting justice have been two different things for centuries, and for good reason.
Sadly I have to agree with you from the beginning to the end of your comment.
My comment wasn't meant as a realistic scenario, but one that depicts how it should be.
It was in an effort to prevent normalizing wrong behaviour and unfair scenarios.
As I said, I completely agree with you, and I understood your comment to mean that a withdrawal alone can’t really be enough after Russia has been wreaking havoc in Ukraine for years. I just wanted to share my thoughts on why this will likely be difficult to implement in practice.
Have a splendid day good Sir/Lady!