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If Democrats win control of the House, then it will happen earlier, because once the VP becomes President, the VP position becomes vacant, and can only be filled if both houses of Congress approve. And Democrats would likely use the "McConnell doctrine" to sit on any appointment made by President Vance and not act on it.
That would effectively give Democrats an extra half vote in the Senate, because there would be no VP to break ties. And the next Democratic House Speaker would be next in line if, somehow, President Vance also leaves office.
So, once the returns are in (with good news for Democrats), if the plan was to shove Trump to the side it will happen before the new House takes over, while Republicans can still pick a new VP.
Ooh, interesting angle. Though I'm not confident Dems would muster up enough spine to do that (or that some wouldn't break away and vote with repubs), but yeah, repubs probably wouldn't want to take that chance.
No, they definitely would sit on the appointment if it's someone dumb.
They might take what they think is the "middle ground" and let a "compromise candidate" through. But I hope they remember that Merrick Garland was the "compromise candidate", and Mitch and Lindsey still shit all over that pick.