this post was submitted on 30 Apr 2026
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Unfortunately, not much or very fast. While certainly Russia is not gaining ground anymore, that doesn't mean they're actually losing much. Really, it's still a continuum of the same stalemate. It's just slightly more in Ukraine's favor. Which ultimately is the prediction we have seen for many years by experts in war. Russia would do well in 2025, but as they run out, and have to use the old stuff, or nothing. while meanwhile Ukraine's industry is building up and the rest of Europe and Ukraine's allies, Ukraine will have a better 2026. Ukraine probably could advance faster too, but they are very careful about not killing all their men if they can avoid it. And so they're being careful, which is overall a good thing
I realize that Ukraine doesn't have nukes, but why don't they use regular bombs, and target Moscow specifically?
I feel like if you bomb the place that all the rich assholes are, this war ends years faster. It brings the war that they're paying for, right up to their doorstep, rather than a thing they read about in the news.
I think it's because they're not sure they'll hit the rich assholes or pro war politicians. If they hit mostly NPCs it will be used as propaganda. We have seen cars of russian generals explode etc. So I think, if they can be sure, they will do it with a precision strike, but just for example dropping a bomb on the kremlin when nobody important is there is probably considered wasted ammunition for destruction of a historical site.
Usually all the best defense hardware is concentrated around the elite. It'll take a lot of effort to punch through. That also means Russia's critical energy and manufacturing is less defended now.