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Yeah nukes are only useful in the hands of people crazy enough to use them. The UK & France having nukes did nothing to protect Ukrainians, it's also done nothing to dissuade Russia from carrying out attacks on British & French soil.
Maybe, or maybe the risk of nukes falling into the wrong hands is used to justify a more violent preemptive strike on Ukraine. Russia effectively used salami tactics and "rebel" troops to take Crimea without it looking like an invasion until it was too late, I don't think the invasion of Ukraine necessarily doesn't happen, it could have just happened in a different way.
Even Thatcher's nukes failed to deter Argentina's Junta, so simply having nukes doesn't really guarantee anything.
The UK has given up over 50 territories since it developed nukes, including handing Hong Kong back to China, so I don't really think nukes guarantee much.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_that_have_gained_independence_from_the_United_Kingdom
All we know for sure is they cost us a lot of money.
You're right that we never really know how things will play out. That said, I don't think anyone expected foreign nukes to defend Ukraine, especially since allies are unwilling to use conventional weapons or send troops.