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Fuck sake, now he's threatening third-party vessels with his malevolent idiocy. This is a big misstep of an escalation, no?
Always has been
In all seriousness, is he expecting the US Navy to fire on civilian vessels? I'd bet we're nearing a point of mutiny on some ships
I don't think there can be 30 hour laundry fires on a US Navy vessel without at least a little bit of mutiny.
I'll take that bet
That's what they've been doing inthe Carribean
From a geopolitical perspective, attacking a Venezuela-registered fishing boat is fundamentally different from attacking a Chinese- or Indian-registered oil tanker. Most of the boats they've attacked in the Caribbean were actually stateless and weren't registered anywhere
I’d say it’s the only somewhat smart play he has left
How is it smart? Honest question, because it strikes me as pissing off the countries that charter those ships as well as the oil companies (boo hoo, but they have pull with all their money).
It's the sort of move that might look like a clever reversal, but ultimately has a very steep price tag.
A blockade is an act of war, and this one is clearly pointed at the rest of the world, not Iran. It's predicated on the same faulty assumption that Trump's administration made when invading Iran: our military is unanswerable, and they will take it lying down.
Escalation paths from this are all bad-- what if an EU ship ignores challenges from a US Navy vessel, or China sends a military escort with a shipping fleet? Are we really about to start another shooting war, or will we stand there with our dicks in our hands as they sail by?
I'm thinking this brilliant idea is abandoned in a week.
I wish I share your confidence.
It will take a week to conceive of and announce something stupider and more self-destructive.
It’s brilliant as in it’s probably the most likely route to WWIII.
Maybe they want that? Would make more sense
If they were even somewhat smart, they’d be blocking just Iranian shipping.
Still less dumb and less war crimes than bombing civilian infrastructure
If they were even somewhat smart, we wouldn't be there and isntreal would be cut off from all trade globally or states doing businesses with them would be sanctioned, like USA is doing with Cuba.
That doesn't make any logical sense...
The only "smart play" is fucking off and leaving Israel to deal with the chaos alone.
Which is the inevitable next step the evangelical extremists will want with Israel. They're trying to bring about Armageddon and the last step in their myth is for all of Israels neighbors to unite and wipe them off the map.
They want Armageddon in their lifetimes, their support of Israel has always had a baked in end date. Because Israel getting destroyed is required before they think they'll be raptured.
If Israel becomes a smoking crater and there's no rapture, will the evangelicals finally come to the realization they've been living in a fairy tale?
No they'll reinterpret the fairy tale to mean something else.
To be fair, outcomes changing your hypothesis is better than the alternative.
No
trump already has a weird insistince they all wear the same shoes...
I'm just saying, there's a very real chance if they're not "called to heaven" that they take the initiative to ringing the doorbell on a mass scale.
Like, I don't know how far you've looked into their rabbit hole, but there's lots of wriggle room around "suicides don't go to heaven". Something like going 150 on the interstate and letting go of the wheel could easily be rationalized as "this was always God's plan". Or just some version of Russian roulette, any random chance can be seen as God's hand.
This isn't the first time a doomsday prophecy falls thru, it's gonna go like it always does.
Yeah but I feel like the scale of this one might be a smidge bigger than the others. Combined.
Only because you're living thru this one, which is the same logical fallacy as when 2,000 years of Christians have all been convinced Jesus is coming back in their lifetime, and so will the next 2,000 years of Christians.
Shit that's happening around us currently always seem like a bigger deal, because to us it is, because it's happening to us right now.
Zoom out and start thinking as "humanity" and not "I" and none of this shit is really that new.
Yeah but I’ve lived through several others that never felt this big - Y2K, Mayan calendar, lots of smaller groups or religious zealots, probably other shit I’m forgetting. I think the big difference was that none of them possessed the means to bring it about themselves if they were sundowning. Which is a distinct possibility this time around.
Y2K was a real thing that was going to happen if an absolute shit ton of people hadn't have fixed it...
And how many Mayan's did you know who thought the world was ending?
Like, none of your examples are the same thing, you don't understand this but don't want to ask questions, so I'm not sure why you even replied.
If you don't want anything explained, I can makes sure I don't accidentally do that HIn.
They'll think God's angry with them for being insufficiently cruel to trans people, and double down.
Question is, if you’re Ronald McDonald and simply pull out, and Iran keeps asking for a toll, you just get a pure loss. A blockade is the only way, that maybe, you can improve your negotiating position for “cheap”. It will backfire for sure though
Obviously the smart play was not to invade at all
Second smartest is GTFO but as was reminded me elsewhere, big, fat, unhealthy ID running the ego can't countenance that.
I mean it is not just trump, republicans can remove him… they choose to allow him to stay in power
This is the real problem. Enablers. He doesn't have to stay in power.
So can Secret Service.
It's not just Republicans either.
There is another smart play.
Give Iran something it wants that actually benefits Americans.
You might think there isn’t anything but there is one:
Stop supporting Israel fully.
But they won’t cause the Epstein class is either compromised or in on it.
Negotiating position for...
What?
Everything trump wants, he already had.
What he wants now is the strait to be open, it's only closed because they're attacking Iran. If they stopped attacking Iran and fucked off, why would Iran keep blocking the strait?
No one, especially Iran, want the strait blocked. Iran is blocking it because that's their leverage to get the war to stop
If trump blocks the fucking strait, what do you think his condition is? You think he's gonna demand Iran that they stop being attacked? Iran already wants to stop having war crimes committed against them, they can't want to stop the war crimes anymore.
Where the actual fuck are you getting any of your information on about this conflict?
Try to think like the great dumbass for a minute:
Iran has said they want to keep the toll system in place after the war
Therefore if you just leave now, everyone will be very mad at you at toll
Therefore only way out is escalating. An invasion is expensive, unpopular, and unlikely to work. They’re already bombing Iran, so not that.
What remains is a naval blockade. Because they’re dumbasses, they didn’t just decide to block Iranian shipping, but instead essentially block all remaining shipping.
It’s less dumb than other options, and less war crimes and killing civilians
It's the naval equivalent of putting tariffs on the whole world, and equally intelligent.
That's what you said, that is false.
I'm worried you've rambled on for so long you've forgotten what you're even trying to defend
When I said somewhat smart the emphasis was on somewhat, and I meant, the least dumb option that he was likely to take (am not counting just exiting, cause he is who he is)
Well, at least it's clear by now any further help would be a waste
The only smart play would have been to never invade Iran in the first place.