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I agree with everything you wrote but I'm not sure how it helps clarify what I said earlier. So... I think we agree?
On your final point I think the big difference between then (before LLMs) and now is that until recently a very demanding PR, in the sense that the person asking for the merge would have a good idea yet didn't really get something about the project and thus needed a lot of guidance, it was seen as an investment. It was a risky bet, maybe that person would just leave after a lengthy discussion, maybe they'd move to their own project, etc... but a bit like with a young intern, the person from the project managing that PR was betting that it was worth spending time on it. They were maybe hoping to get some code they themselves didn't have the expertise on (say some very specific optimization for very specific hardware they didn't have) or that this new person would one day soon become a more involved contributor. So there was an understanding that yes it would be a challenging process but both parties would benefit from it.
Now I believe the situation has changed. The code submitted might actually be good, maybe not. It will though always, on the surface, look plausible because that's exactly what LLM have been trained for, for code or otherwise, to "look" realistic in their context.
So... I would argue that it's this dynamic that has change, from the hope of onboarding a new person on a project to a 1-shot gamble.