this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2026
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What are the odds that the Democrats win the Senate, even in a landscape with +15 D turnout?
Dems still have to defend somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-4 seats and are in a position to gain... maybe +3-4? Six on a truly historic landslide. Which puts them right back where they were in 2020, with John Fetterman filling in for Joe Manchin / Joe Lieberman, and everyone has to peg their hopes on Platner or Slotkin not going completely sour.
Go back to 2018 and remind yourself of how Democrats played themselves against Trump in his first term. Two years later, how did Biden behave?
At some point, you have to see this for what it is. We have two business parties, each of which are jockeying to be the champions of a handful of deeply reactionary Silicon Valley trillionaires and their buddies at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. What do you think a Dem Majority is going to do about ICE in 2027? What do you think they're going to do with the Epstein Files? What do you think they're going to do about Iran?
Go back to 2021. Go back to 2012 and 2008. Go back to 1993 or 1977. There's a pattern here, for those with eyes to see.