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Democratic Leaders Face Backlash Over 'Cowardly' Responses to Trump War on Iran
(www.commondreams.org)
this post was submitted on 02 Mar 2026
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Be careful putting all your hope on this campaign. Kat's tied for second, not a distant second, but a solid second. She's well ahead (90%+) with 18-35's. But I do think she's a long shot after looking into the polling (the only polling on this race). I'd put the probability of Kat victory at 20%.
Poll was conducted via
It was about 22% land line, 77% text to web. Now I'm always a bit dubious of "polls of likely voters", because they almost exclusively rely on whatever cohort voted last election. But we work with the data we've got, not the data we want.
Something striking is that Biss is not as far ahead as we might expect them to be. I think its going to be tight on election day, tighter than what this poll suggests.
If you look at the cross tabs, Basically, Biss voters split between Kat and Fine as second choice, and all Fine voters break to Biss, and all Kat voters also break to Biss.
Basically, the least popular candidate to Fine voters is Kat, and the least popular candidate to Kat voters is fine. The electorate is very split in this race, and Biss is the benefactor of this. Likewise, there is substantial splitting on the DSA vote. Bushra got the DSA endorsement, not Kat, and that might have been the killer. There is clearly some local infighting happening here, where DSA leadership didn't like Kat or some such (maybe they view her as a primadonna). Regardless, almost all Bushra voters break to Kat, and they are one of the only candidates where most of their voters break in such a specific way.
If this were typical times and typical campaigns, i'd say Kats done and Biss is going to win this. However, key issue I identified early: this is a poll of "likely voters". Polling based on this kind of sampling suffers from a "the past is the future" assumption. One thing has been clear about Kat's campaign is that its not traditional. If Kat has been focusing on building votership into the primary, as in, recruiting unlikely voters to engage, then these results are actually very positive for her, because polling will always underestimate that strategy.
https://evanstonroundtable.com/2026/02/24/roundtable-poll-biss-leads-by-single-digits-over-abughazaleh-fine-in-congressional-primary/
No no. She's an outside long shot on a good day. I've seen the polls. But the Iran War puts some of her most popular issues at the forefront of the race.
With some enormous undecides floating in the wind. It's absolutely Biss's race to lose. But as Fine gets more money and support to challenge Kat and Biss, she's defining herself more strictly as a pro-Hasbara candidate. And she's doing it in a race where Israel is a highly polarizing issue.
Like with Mamdani, a big turnout spike would favor the more progressive primary challengers simply because the high profile issues favor Kat's campaign.
But also, it's Chicago Politics and that shit's cutthroat. Rahm Emanuel could jump out from behind a bush and just stab a bunch of candidates, idfk.
Yeah I'd need to look closely at the districts demographics and citing characteristics. Seeing Kat on stage for the debate, I think she came across as a little green. Which doesn't bother me, but there was a defensiveness in their tone that neither of the other top candidates had.
I might dig into the district a bit further later to look at the districts demographics. Ill ping you if I get around to that.