Predictions

There have been persistent rumours about the 20th of April.

1. Nazi saluting people in power might want to pay their respects to Hitler's birthday
2. it is 90 days after US President ordered a report (to complete within 90 days) to recommend if the US should declare a migration state of emergency.
3. The way they have been braking the law and ignoring courts and go full gestapo with ICE, they cant stop now, they have to keep going or they will fail.

So I found Astro.com's read on the month particularly interesting as there are several aspects seeming to converge around that time of this month.

Obligatory this is not an April's Fools joke, but lets hope it is.

More here

( ALL of this is predicated on this being The Great Filter, in-which humankind divides into 2 underlying factions, & goes into multi-stage deathmatch mode, until this is all finished.

The 2 underlying factions are the Kahneman1-mind, imprint->reaction mind, ideology/prejudice/"religion" does all our thinking for us, .. faction,

vs

the Kahneman2-mind, considered-reasoning mind, Empiricism, objectivity, Humanist-Rationalism people, who do not comprise more than 1/3 of humankind, at absolute most.

Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast & Slow" the most-fundamental book in understanding what humankind's actually doing, right now, globally.

Please read it, soon.

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Other books which identify dimensions of the real-underlying-unconscious-obstacle-set that humankind may be extinguished by, include:

researchers Logan, King, & Fischer-Wright's "Tribal Leadership", on the 5 Culture Levels ( not "stages": stages are irreversible, like caterpillar->moth, these tend to revert to CultureLevel2, so therefore they can't be true-irreversible-stages, see? )

They never realized it, but the 3 categories of "game" anchor the set-of-5-culture-levels:

• Positive-Sum game / Win-Win Alliance / CultureLevel5: LIVING IS SELF-INHERENTLY AWESOME!!
• CultureLevel4: WE are Awesome, THEY are not.
• Zero-Sum game / competitive-narcissism / CultureLevel3: if THEY have any validity, then that was taken from me!
• CultureLevel2: MY life sucks ( victim of narcissism's rule )
• Negative-Sum game / nihilism / CultureLevel1: mass-shooters, murdercide-bombings, nihilist-oligarchy's intent to rule the world while destroying its future & life-itself.

The book "Immunity to Change" by researchers Kegan & Lahey is also important: it is on the protecting-dysfunction mechanism in our unconscious-mind ( hence the title ), & how to get one's unconscious-mind to allow growing-up to happen!

There is another book which is fundamental to understanding world-dysfunction: Schneider's "Lead Right for Your Company's TYPE".

A condensed version of it:

Make a 2x2 Matrix.

Top-half is Potential

( he puts pie-in-the-sky potential on the bottom, for some incomprehensible reason, & the solid/concrete/actual on the top?? I'm doing it properly, here )

Left-side is People

Right-side is Tasks

Bottom-half is Concrete-Actuality.

Now we have the proper division of kinds-of-work!

Kindergarten, learning, infirmaries, etc, all go in the top-left quadrant, because that's where Human Potential lives!

Top-right? Science, discovery, excellence-driven operations, etc..

Bottom-left? Actual-Consensus.

Bottom-right? Manufacturing.

Sudden industrial-accident?

Simultaneously in top-right ( discover what's going on, & how do we stop it from getting worse, now! ) & top-left ( you're injured, but we're going to keep you as alive & as healthy as we can, help us in figuring-out how we, together, can make this work well, please.. ) quadrants, but cleanup is mostly bottom-right quadrant, obviously..

Humankind's not getting this right, & that is wasting more of humankind's LivingPotential & LivingOpportunity than anything else, from what I can see.

Kids out of high-school should be able to immediately identify which quadrant a given work is in, need to be able to identify which quadrant they want to be living-in ( top-right, for me, an autistic systems-creature ), & ought be able to switch-gears from 1 quadrant to another, quickly & efficiently, if the context suddenly changes.

Now that you understand the context of the predictions, the oceans-of-wasted-education missing the key points .. now my predictions ( the ones that I can remember, as I've memory-problems due to brain-injuries ) about the derailing of humankind, as it will happen, are these:

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• Trump will have about 3 personality-punctuations, the 1st will be soon, & will convert him entirely to PSYCHOPATHY.

( the 1st will happen in the next 1/2y, so late-March 2025 to .. late-September )

• The economy is going to become functionally GONE, soon: it will take about 3y from the last-peak until it truly hits bottom, so we won't have an economy to work-in, while trying to prepare for The North American War

( the 2nd Great Depression, obviously )

• Trump will stop ALL trade with Canada, before he declares war against Canada, to try to break us through economic enforcement

( declaration-of-war will happen in about 3y )

• IF the US owns Greenland, THEN they can control all Atlantic trade-access to Canada

( which is bad - having Alaska to pinch-off BC's trade-routes already is set, of course )

• Trump's war against all the non-Republican US will partially-gut their war against Canada

( by gutting the US of A, itself: I fully expect that by 2032, there will be about 200,000,000 or 300,000,000 fewer people in North America )

• Trump's 3rd personality-punctuation will coincide with the US beginning TOTAL WAR against Canada

( should be early 2028 -ish, to prevent "election" from having to happen in the US of A )

• the continuous-since-the-FLOOD ( when the entire Laurentide Ice-Sheet melted into the Atlantic & Arctic oceans, just under 12 millenia ago ) human-sacrifice practice in the Americas is going to actually become a part of the US's Republican culture as a real worshipping-of-Trump ( I expect people to be doing it out of fear-for-their-own-lives )

( not until they declare war on Canada? a little sooner? don't know .. yes, I find it's going to get THAT bad, between now & 2031-ish, when the Putin & Trump alliance should collapse )

• WHILE Trump's US is waging total war against Canada, Russia will be ( backed by China & ) waging war against Europe

( With the US backing Russia, & warring against Canada, Europe's going to .. be hamburger? it'll be BAD, that I know. )

• WHILE the West is tied-up with those 2 local-wars, China is going to be rampaging Asia

( Modi's assuming that Russia will protect India against China, with Russia now being an economic-vassal-state of China, was national-suicide. His Hindutva-India also is: ideology disallows considered-reasoning's function, & siding with ideology is anti-strategic, in these end-times / Great Filter times )

• The apparently-unconscious strategy of Hamas, to use the whole Palestinian people as bait for Netanyahu, so that once Netanyahu's "Israel" commits completely to absolute ( dark tetrad, you'll notice https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_triad#Dark_tetrad ) sadism/nihilism/machiavellianism/narcissism/etc, then the entire Muslim world will eventually be forced into becoming martyrdom-oriented-enough that Israel's "deterrent" wouldn't be able to "deter" ANYthing, .. because if they no-longer care if you kill them, THEN you have to succeed in mowing-them-all-down, & ANY who get-through, take you out.. So, Israel will be annihilated about (7/2)y before the US of A dies.

( the US's rulers simply won't care, by then: psychopathy will have progressed in ruling the country much more completely, & only annihilating the world's humanness at any cost will remain their core focus, by then )

( it was a guy explaining that in kenjutsu, all your counters/blocks are assuming that the opponent cares to avoid being cut .. but .. IF your opponent couldn't care less about surviving the fight, they only care about cutting you down .. THEN all your training practices were mis-training you against that opponent!

Suddenly, after the October when Hamas struck, I realized that that applies to countries, too! )

• MBS's going to be claiming ALL of the Middle-East & Africa as his personal territory, so that by whenever in 2031 that the Russia+US alliance implodes, there will be 2 remaining empires in the world ( CCP's empire & MBS's empire ), & the now-butchered-up remnant of TrueNATO/VraiOTAN standing, tattered, in their way..

( & yes, 2031 gets its place in this list )

• 2031, sometime, the Russia+US alliance against the West implodes, the remnant of TrueNATO tries to catch a breath, AND.. the Chinese Empire launches EVERYTHING it's got, against the remnant of the West ( they'd be incompetent to not do that, obviously )

This begins the 4-decades ( minimum ) deathmatch war, between Confucian Marxist Leninist Kapha-metabolism empire vs TrueNATO's relying-on-LivingSpirit ( by then, XOR already-gone ) alliance.

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Cheery list, isn't it?

The Great Filter: in-which humankind will force change its unconscious-mind's nature XOR Universe will simply edit-out this-world's humankind, leaving the galaxy "cleaned" of us.

Really-grow-up or extermination.

Global mitosis, of humankind, dividing into 2 incompatible natures, & the 3 variants of the no-LivingSpirit side taking turns against TrueNATO..

( oh, it'll also be warmer, by then, & the melting of Greenland will have trashed the North Atlantic's coast-cities, ports, etc, aiding the CCP-empire in their war against the remant of TrueNATO )

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I don't expect ANYbody to consider this list to be valid in any way, whatsoever ..

.. until Trump has his 1st personality-punctuation, exactly as predicted, & then .. suddenly the rest of the list will look a wee bit more .. possible.

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(c) CC 2025 Paragone, no deriv's, no commercial, attribution-required: quote the entire thing verbatim, XOR just link to it.

( people here, in this discussion, only quote the part-you're-disputing, not the whole thing: the whole-thing-quote license is for sites other-than Lemmy.ca's Predictions community.. sorry I caught that distinction late : )

Beauty, eh?

_ /\ _

Let's use https://www.v-dem.net/ as the source here to determine whether this prediction is considered valid or not.

I'd wager Bezos, but it could be Zuckerberg or Sam Altman. Purpose will be to keep the other tech billionaires kissing Trump's ring -- similar to what Putin did to their oligarchs.

cross-posted from: https://lemy.lol/post/22844267

Need Opinion.

What do you think is the right way to play this bet in the polygon prediction market?

Is playing contrarian gonna give a huge pay off?

Or Is going with the market trends going to help make decent but sure shot gains of 4-5%?

By the way the election result is to be declared on June 4th, 2024.

I still see most people in his favour despite everything.

I personally don't like Modi much but as a business decision there are higher odds in betting in support of him.

What are your thoughts on this?

After dinner time discussion, my gf asked me to make a record.

In 5 years...

10% of search traffic is paid.

Reddit is primarily a short form video website (like Tiktok).

SpaceX predictions are fun...

At least, the community prediction is only at 24% right now. Personally, I'm at 60%.

This market is very active currently. Bets are piling up for Yes and No positions, so there seem to be strong opinions on both sides.

Or do it like a the naughty social media normie that you and cite your horoscope

For example, things like this:

Some models might be able to answer this precise question correctly, but they will still fail at many simple primary-school-level math questions.

More examples in my comment here.

and one more screenshot here

And the worst part is that, with so many companies shifting to work-from-home. it will create a culture (especially for early-career workers) that's less "work from home" and more "live at work." You'll be on call 24-hours a day, reachable at all times. And, for early-career workers getting out of college, it won't even seem like a strange transition from college dorms and fraternity/sorority houses to company housing.

Not only will this lead to a culture where just living on your own at all is a major achievement, it will create a culture where workers don't own much of their own, because they have little storage space. It also means that leaving or job or (god forbid) getting fired or laid off will also render you homeless almost immediately.

Maybe I should shh up before I start giving these companies ideas.