lokalhorst

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Exactly. We both typed the same thought basically at the same time. It is the expection AGI was a logical consequence of LLMs that is driving this insane market.

I agree with you and that is basically what I tried to say. I just used the pharmaceutical to explain the concept of investment, expectation, profit. I think both are in fact not the same, while investors think they are.

People try to always frame it as AGI is the logical next expansion step of LLMs, but it is not. This is not a linear process and transformer based LLMs and the science fiction like goal of AGI just don't have much to do with each other.

A lot of ideas need huge investments to once become profitable. Imagine a new pharmaceutical that was found by a researcher. They have the capabilities to produce the substance in their lab in very small quantities, but it's not enough to sell it. As they don't have a lot of money by themselves, they need investments to buy a bigger lab, automate manufacturing etc. in order to scale the process. Then after a period of time, the product slowly becomes profitable and for the investors hopefully big time.

Now with AI the thought process is similar. You need huge data centers and gigantic computation facilities to train models with many billions of parameters to make a model that is even slightly useful. Their have been made huge investments into different AI companies, because this technology seems to be ground breaking and it is not clear yet, who will win the race.

Now stocks are pumped up and everybody is waiting for the breakthrough, the artificial general intelligence, called AGI. This concept is completely bullshit, but investors don't understand the technology, they are just greedy. If knowing that the token size of transformer models scale with n² was common sense, people would have already thrown the towel. Now what AI companies really need to do, is to shove AI down everyone's throat. They need to sell their models to every little business with the promise of increasing productivity largely. Companies believe the bullshitting and spend a lot of money on AI, although Harvard Business Review found out that workslop™ does in fact not increase productivity. In alignment with sunken cost fallacy, AI companies don't give up but increase their bullshitting game. They present agentic AI, - as a data scientist only writing down this term makes me cringe really hard.

As so much money has been pumped into this market, the stocks are overvalued through the roof, the GPU and storage market is broken, there is no way back. We don't know yet what the tech bros will invent in order to rescue their asses, but it is not sure at all this bubble will ever burst. So you better don't bet your ass on falling stocks.

Irvyn Yalom - Staring at the Sun

But it also has some extra features like surveillance I don't want it to do

I think this is about assuming US = default, not good or bad

So wird er vermutlich in 5 Jahren auch betrachtet werden