Futurology

2446 readers

100 users here now

founded 2 years ago

MODERATORS

The AI Bubble may be about to burst. LLMs have reached the point of diminishing returns, and there's no sign of scaling leading to independent reasoning, needed for the first steps to AGI. (futurology.today)

submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

4 comments fedilink hide all child comments

The argument for current LLM AIs leading to AGI has always been that they would spontaneously develop independent reasoning, through an unknown emergent property that would appear as they scale. It hasn't happened, and there's no sign that it will.

That's a dilemma for the big AI companies. They are burning through billions of dollars every month, and will need further hundreds of billions to scale further - but for what in return?

Current LLMs can still do a lot. They've provided Level 4 self-driving, and seem to be leading to general-purpose robots capable of much useful work. But the headwinds look ominous for the global economy, - tit-for-tat protectionist trade wars, inflation, and a global oil shock due to war with Iran all loom on the horizon for 2025.

If current AI players are about to get wrecked, I doubt it's the end for AI development. Perhaps it will switch to the areas that can actually make money - like Level 4 vehicles and robotics.

top 4 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old

[–] [email protected] -1 points 5 months ago

another normie who has no idea what is ai and who thinks llm=ai thinking he knows everything. people like you are more irritating than companies who overhype ai

[–] [email protected] -1 points 4 months ago

There are options, and a well-funded new player will burst on the scene just as ChatGPT made itself eponymous with language AI: https://open.substack.com/pub/qnfo/p/the-diminishing-returns-of-scaling

[–] [email protected] -2 points 5 months ago

It's hard to reason with the inconsistent (sometime nonexistent) human written communication that LLMs know. There's something deeper in other channels of communication that we use for our own logic.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 5 months ago

AI is synthetic cognition or synthetic knowledge. What we're calling AGI must "know" the logic of our quantum universe first, which is all but incomprehensible to us.