Monero

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Results summary

At current Monero ring size of 16, the theoretical minimum attack success through completely random guessing would be 1/16 = 6.25%. According to preliminary estimates, an adversary could take advantage of the divergence between the real spend age distribution and the status quo decoy distribution to achieve an attack success probability of 23.5%, on average, since the August 2022 hard fork. This corresponds to an effective ring size of 4.2. The attack success probability prior to August 2022 may be higher, but this was not measured due to time constraints.

The OSPEAD techniques suggest a new decoy distribution, which would reduce the average attack success probability to 7.6 percent, corresponding to an effective ring size of 13.2. Implementation and deployment

It is likely that deployment of a new decoy selection algorithm without a blockchain hard fork would do more harm than good due to some users being slow to upgrade. (For more information about the risk, read my "Formula for Accuracy of Guessing Monero Real Spends Using Fungibility Defects". Therefore, the OSPEAD-derived decoy selection algorithm likely won't be implemented in Monero's standard wallet code before the next hard fork.

Monero's next hard fork is expected to deploy Full Chain Membership Proofs, which will eliminate the on-chain ring signature privacy model. However, in certain situations, decoy-based privacy will still be used to provide protection to users' wallets from a potentially malicious spying remote node. Therefore, the OSPEAD-derived decoy distribution can be used in those circumstances. For more details, read "Initial Probability Density Function for OSPEAD".

The OSPEAD documents and code are being publicly released now because there is now an implementable solution to the problems I raised in my original HackerOne submission. Public release will allow greater review and scrutiny of the proposed OSPEAD techniques.