TL;DR: they give historical examples of armies failing, not a prediction of what this russian army failing would look like.
Good article though. Very interesting.
this post was submitted on 08 Jun 2026
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I think they provide enough hints for us to infer what military collapse might look like in this case.
The leadership is feckless, the troops are demoralized, the economy is destroyed, and now logistics in two key fronts are failing. Historically, collapse looks like armies surrendering or fleeing en masse, and there is a real possibility that if Russia can't get their troops the necessary food and fuel before Fall, they rout in the face of a deadly winter.
This would have 2 major implications. First, obviously, Ukraine would be able to advance and easily kill / capture Russian troops, reclaim territory, and strike deeper into the logistics chain, compromising the stability of other fronts.
Less obviously, Russia would have to deal with an influx of AWOL soldiers on a scale they've never seen before. This would obviously be devastating to morale, but it also presents a real economic challenge too. What do they do with these men who have fled? Even the crass answer of burying them in mass graves carries a high material and logistics cost they can ill-afford, and also deals a punishing blow not only to military morale, but also to civilian support.
I think that Russia has until the first cold snap of the year to figure something out. After that, it's every man for himself.
Edit: derp, was trying to reply to Optional since they pointed out the author didn't spell out the collapse theory for us.
That seems like a very odd way to end the article. It felt like the author got cut off mid-thought, like the scribe who carved that the Grail could be found in the castle of Aaarrrrrrghhhhh in "Monty Python and the Holy Grail".
Interesting read, though. Not sure if it's just wishful thinking on the part of the author, but it really does feel like the end of the war is coming soon. Fingers crossed the Russians finally come to their senses and go the hell home.