cross-posted from: https://sh.itjust.works/post/57793224
When gas prices spike, the approval rating for the president typically falls.
Now that the war in Iran has pushed the national average price of gas above $4 a gallon, Republicans are watching closely to see if President Trump’s approval ratings take a hit — which could dim the prospects of some of their House and Senate candidates in the midterm elections.
Mr. Trump’s approval rating has hovered around 40 percent in The New York Times polling average tracker for several months. It remains to be seen whether the recent spike in gas prices — which has been unusually rapid — will have an effect on them.
There have been indications in recent years that the correlation between the price at the pump and approval ratings may be weakening, as the electorate has grown more polarized. But in this case, the price increase is clearly tied to Mr. Trump’s decision to attack Iran.
Just last month, Mr. Trump boasted in his State of the Union address that gas was “below $2.30 a gallon in most states.” On Tuesday the national average hit $4.02, climbing above the $4 mark for the first time since August 2022, according to the AAA motor club. In some states, the average price at the pump is more than $5 a gallon, and in some counties it is more than $6.
Here’s a closer look at how gas prices have historically stood apart as a key factor driving shifts in public attitudes toward the president.
The Carter Administration
In 1979, as gas prices soared to what would now be about $5 a gallon amid the energy crisis, President Jimmy Carter’s approval ratings plummeted to around 30 percent. (During that period, Mr. Carter did get a small rally in support with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, though it was short-lived.)
Average gas prices per gallon and presidential approval ratings
Will $4 Gas Hurt Trump’s Approval Ratings? Here’s What History Shows. - The New York Times
The Reagan Administration
Lower gas prices through the 1980s were closely associated with higher approval ratings for President Ronald Reagan.
Average gas prices per gallon and presidential approval ratings
Will $4 Gas Hurt Trump’s Approval Ratings? Here’s What History Shows. - The New York Times
The George W. Bush Administration
In the summer of 2008, as gas prices surged to the equivalent of $6 a gallon when adjusted for inflation — and the financial crisis raged — President George W. Bush’s approval ratings steeply declined.
Average gas prices per gallon and presidential approval ratings
Will $4 Gas Hurt Trump’s Approval Ratings? Here’s What History Shows. - The New York Times
The Link May Be Weakening
But over the last decade and a half, the link between gas prices and approval ratings has gotten weaker.
Average gas prices per gallon and presidential approval ratings
A University of Virginia Center for Politics analysis found that while gas prices and approval ratings had been closely related for decades, the correlation has become less pronounced in the last 15 years.
“Presidential approval ratings are far more stable in general than they used to be,” said Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the Center for Politics. “You don’t see big swings anymore.”
Polarization, he said, plays a large role in that change.
“Presidents have fairly unified support from their own party, and unified opposition from the other party, which means they have a higher floor and a lower ceiling,” he said, referring to approval ratings.
Still, the current gas spike could be different. The quick pace with which prices have jumped may be enough to upend that trend.
Gas prices are also not the only thing driving voters’ views of the president.
As the war in Iran continues, the polls show that the public continues to largely disapprove of the military attacks, which could also contribute to lower approval ratings.
But voters who support the attacks, said Alec Tyson, a pollster for Ipsos public affairs, have a much less negative view of how they will be affected financially by the conflict.
“It suggests that even price pressures at the pump may have limited impacts on the president’s overall standing,” Mr. Tyson said.
Data is as of March 31. Gas prices are the U.S. average per gallon and were adjusted for inflation. Gas prices are six-month rolling averages from U.S. Energy Information Administration (1977 to Feb. 28, 2026) and daily national averages from AAA (March 1 to March 31, 2026). Historical approval ratings are from Gallup (1977 to 2025) and The New York Times (2026).