this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2025
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Hurling ordure at the TREACLES, especially those closely related to LessWrong.
AI-Industrial-Complex grift is fine as long as it sufficiently relates to the AI doom from the TREACLES. (Though TechTakes may be more suitable.)
This is sneer club, not debate club. Unless it's amusing debate.
[Especially don't debate the race scientists, if any sneak in - we ban and delete them as unsuitable for the server.]
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(I'm going to say "you" in this response even though you're stating some of these as arguments from the author and not yourself, so feel free to take this as a response to the author and not you personally if you're playing devil's advocate and don't actually think some of these things.)
But it does take place in the real world. Where do you think the computers are going to be? Computers can and do exist in and interact with the real world, they always have, so that box is already checked. You can imagine the computations as happening in a sort of mathematical void outside of the universe, but that's mostly only useful for reasoning about a system. After you do all that, you move electrons around in a box and see the effects with your own human senses.
Well, yeah, current LLMs are tiny and stupid. Something bigger, and probably not an LLM at all, might not be.
It doesn't have to actually fit reality perfectly, and it doesn't have to be able to predict reality like a grand unified theory would. It just needs to behave similarly enough to produce the same effects that brains do. It hasn't been shown to be possible, but there's also no reason to think we can never get close enough to reproduce it.
Yes it does. If they're indistinguishable, there is no difference.
I don't have any experience writing physics simulators myself, but they definitely exist. Even as a toy example, the iOS app Dice by PCalc does its die rolls by simulating a tossed die in 3D space instead of a random number generator. (Naturally, the parameters of the throw are generated, the simulation is just for fun, but again, it's a distinction without a difference. If the results have the same properties, the mechanism doesn't matter.) If I give you a billion random numbers, do you think you could tell if I used the app or a real die? Even if you could, would using one versus the other be the difference between a physics simulation being accurate or inaccurate enough to produce consciousness?
Of course. This is addressing an argument made by the post that computers are inherently incapable of intelligence or consciousness, even assuming sufficient computation power, storage space, and knowledge of physics and neurology. And I don't even think that you need to simulate a brain to produce mechanical consciousness, I think there would be other, more efficient means well before we get to that point, but sufficiently detailed simulation is something we have no reason to think is impossible.
Why not? And even if so, what's stopping you from bringing in the externalities as well?
What are the rules of the filing system? If they're complex enough, and executed sufficiently quickly that I can converse with it in my lifetime, let me be the judge of whether I think it's intelligent.
this is an extended "nuh-uh"
I think the point being made is perfectly reasonable. It's entirely possible to think that there's probably nothing stopping things more like a computer than like a brain having actual intelligence/consciousness, even if there's no particular pointer from where we are to that state. We are an existence proof that matter can do this, and there's little reason to think it's the only way it can.
No, it's not reasonable. This is what you're saying:
This is logically valid but meaningless. There's nothing to be done with this. There's no reason to be had here.
Then we have the banal take of "if we had a magic box with infinite capabilities, it could do X!", where, in this case, X happens to be "have consciousness". Ok! Great. You have fun playing in the sandpit, thinking about your magic box. I'm gonna smoke cigarettes and play slot machines for an hour.
It's only when we start bringing the discussion down to simulations on a Turing machine that this stuff gets interesting. But that's not what y'all are trying to talk about, because you haven't read the goddamn essay.
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