this post was submitted on 16 Nov 2025
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I think Krugman has generally focused on labor productivity when talking about technology and the economy. He made that prediction in the 90s, when the productivity paradox was a topic.
He has a recent-ish oped (direct nyt link) where he admits he was wrong but then brings up labor productivity again, waggles his eyebrows, and gives you a smouldering look. He sounded convincing to me, but I don't have the background knowledge to know if he's cherry picking his numbers.
I think Krugman is a legit intellectual and doesn't intentionally cherry pick numbers. I followed his blog and such starting when I was a teenager (during the 2008 crisis), and I think he helped me understand what was going on, using fairly rigorous math and data (for a "science" communicator). Few other economic communicators made sense to me at the time. The Austrian school was being pushed heavily by the right and tech-bros, and didn't seem based on anything but vibes.