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The entire PR battle was about who was responsible for the shutdown, when either side could have had defectors and ended it in the other side's favor. But the outcome contextualizes the battle retroactively. Here, the outcome was that democrats "won" at best status quo from before the shutdown, which is just objectively a loss since we had 40 days of pain until then. Further, the public impression will likely be that the shutdown was pointless if nothing of value was actually gained, all while democrats shine a spotlight on their part in this. Democrats defected, so that is a "capitulation" which is a loss plus volition. Really confused what is controversial about those statements, let me know.
"Technical" in the sense that yes, you can say they have leverage, while in substance, no, they do not have leverage. "Superficial" leverage work better? "Illusory" leverage?
There is absolutely no reason to think a December vote will be any different, while they also gave up the actual leverage (the republican-damaging PR effect of this shutdown) and will start in December in a materially worse negotiating position because of that. I think the meaning is clear, but let me know if not.