United States | News & Politics

While the message is not entirely off, it's worth realizing that polling approval numbers are all over the place. While Nate Silver might not peg it, be does at leas provide more polls which shows this:

As he says:

Now these differences aren’t too surprising. It’s normal for individual polls to disagree because of sampling error. But variation in how polls are conducted (whether they interview adults or registered voters, the variables they weight on, etc.) can make those differences even larger. For example, Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, and RMG all have Republican house effects while Ipsos tends to have a strong Democratic house effect. ...

Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation but because pollsters have long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity — and often underestimated it.

Which is to say, polling is still more of an art.

This is not to dampen the delight too much, but reality is much more complicated than a poll.