this post was submitted on 10 May 2025
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A lot depends on how far the Supreme Court lets the Trump administration go with blatant law breaking. The veneer of system unity across multiple branches of government would give them a much better chance of avoiding '28 elections entirely, but if they are faced with the choice of following at least some critical laws or abandoning the veneer of lawfulness, it really increases the chances of a "divided they fall" scenario.
It also depends on whether MAGA coalesces around a successor. Factions with different visions of government have agreed to work together with Trump as a figurehead. If they don't path to Trump term three, the successor selection is another opportunity for internal infighting to break their grip on power.
Scary times, and horrible unnecessary suffering for huge numbers of people on the way, but I still see hope to come out of it without the country disbanding.
I don't think the Supreme Court has any power to stop this train. They've arrested a judge and a mayor now and they've threatened the Justices. Like, this is BIG DICTATOR SHIT.
The Federal Government is gonna keep suffering the termite infestation till the whole thing effectively crumbles. Then the Christian Nationalists get what they really want - Confederacy 2, and the Technocrats start their project in earnest on the West Coast.
The Feds will conveniently ignore Southern seccessionists.
It's a good point about the successor, I've seen these people get swept up by any demagogue who trots by. My money is they push states rights eventually and say fuck the liberals entirely, they'll build their little ethnostate. Somewhere.