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You’ve got two choices. 1 - continue to invest using DCA even thought the market is down.
2 - sell, move your money to a CMA or something, likely at a loss for some of it, and pay your capital gains.
Because the option you are engaging in FUD over is that the market does not come back up. My friend, if everything goes to shit in that scenario and you don’t have a pile of cash under your mattress, you’re just as fucked as everyone else. There will be a run on the banks and there will be no money for anyone. So either put stacks of $20s in the freezer or keep investing.
I'm not arguing the market never comes back up, but there have been prolonged periods of time where markets do not recover to previous highs. After the great depression, the US stock market took about 30 years to recover to its previous high and continue growing (https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data). Similarly, it took Japan's stock market 30 years to recover to its previous high (https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data) and it's already on its way down.
The stock market does not represent economic reality. There are too many tricks with leverage in many forms, including derivatives, which distort the true value. Too much importance is placed on this glorified casino and for the past few decades, the go-to solution has been to pump money into the system at any sign of trouble. It's not sustainable to keep feeding this beast for the sake of the ultrawealthy who own the vast majority of it.
A stock market crash does not necessarily mean a run on the banks. There was a run on the banks after the stock market crash of 1929 because banks were over-leveraged with loans used to pump the stock market. That same mistake is being made now, but the difference this time is the government guaranteeing deposits. There are other issues where the government may not be able to fulfill those guarantees, but at that point, is this fragile system worth keeping up? We can't keep it up forever.
It's not FUD to point out that infinite growth is not sustainable. On the flipside, the permanent optimism of claiming the line will always go up in the end and not taking into account the amount of time it can take for that to happen is irrational. The key as always is to diversify, but the makeup of that diversification can vary greatly and the stability of the stock market is not guaranteed.
You’re arguing both sides of the coin. Pick one. It also doesn’t really change what I said. You either stay in and hope, or get out and pay the tax man. Your call.
For something like a 401k, changing your allocations has no tax events. For the rest, most of your holdings will be long term and will qualify for a mere 15% or lower tax rate: https://www.bankrate.com/investing/long-term-capital-gains-tax/#what-is-the-long-term-capital-gains-tax-rate
So you want to stay in? Got it.
I don't know how you got that impression but perhaps you're just interpreting my comments through green-tinted permabull lenses.
Hey man, you do you. You seem to want to just argue. I was plenty clear about the available options, even if they are simplified. Stay in, DCA, or go cash in bank or under a mattress. Regardless, if TSHTF cash in hand is the only way to keep the value, whatever that might be. Pick one. I don’t have a dog in your fight.