this post was submitted on 29 Mar 2025
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Not something I've thought about before, but if anything, the Kursk incursion showed russia that they have to respond seriously to Ukraine crossing the border and move in a lot of troops and equipment.
This means that when Ukraine does something like this, russia is forced to respond in force, and move a lot of gear around. With the current state of russian equipment and the drone war, moving a lot of equipment is likely to result in quite a few losses, both because of wear and stuff breaking down on its own, and because concentrations of gear and troops on the move are prime targets for Ukrainian drones.