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The first quarter is on track for negative GDP growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says (www.cnbc.com)

submitted 10 months ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/economics@lemmy.world

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Summary

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker indicates U.S. GDP may shrink by 1.5% in Q1 2025, reversing from an earlier 2.3% growth estimate.

Weak consumer spending and exports contributed to the downgrade, reflecting broader economic concerns. Inflation-adjusted spending dropped 0.5% in January, and net exports' contribution fell sharply.

Declining consumer confidence, rising jobless claims, and an inverted yield curve signal potential recession risks.

Markets now expect multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025, with an 80% chance of a June reduction, as economic uncertainty weighs on stocks and bonds.

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[–] ivanafterall@lemmy.world 3 points 10 months ago

I think we're already in the middle of the greatest depression, too.