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US population projections shrink because of declining birth rates, less immigration (abcnews.go.com)

submitted 11 months ago by pelespirit@sh.itjust.works to c/politics@sh.itjust.works

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Without immigration, the U.S. population will shrink starting in 2033 in part “because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself,” the Congressional Budget Office said.

The reduced projections from last year were the results of a decline in projected fertility rates over 30 years from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 births per woman and less immigration because of an executive order last June that temporarily suspends asylum processing at the border when U.S. officials deem they are overwhelmed, the budget office said. Replacement happens at a rate of 2.1 births per woman.

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[–] Jiggle_Physics@sh.itjust.works 10 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

Among US citizens there are 52.9/1000 birth for white women, 55.6/1000 black, Asian/Pacific island 446.6/1000, and 5/1000 native. The rate needs to be 2.1/1 for there to be minimal population growth. Without immigrants these numbers need to be 2001/1000 for minimal population growth.

You aren't making up for this deficit

[–] taladar@sh.itjust.works 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Without any migrants in either direction you would still need to account for deaths before having children, infertility and similar effects, that is why the figure given for a stable population is usually 2.1 and not 2.001 or something similar like your 2001 figure.

[–] Jiggle_Physics@sh.itjust.works 1 points 11 months ago

yeah, I was saying the 2001 as like, a simplification, in a vacuum, absolute minimum needed. Just something to illustrate the issue, reality is usually different, more complicated