this post was submitted on 21 Oct 2024
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The NDP and Greens have won 42 seats so far. So we need 5 more to avert the crisis.
It's very unlikely that both of the marginal NDP ridings will both flip Conservative. Mail-in ballots usually skew slightly left, so there's little reason to expect a Con upset at final counting. (Comox mail-in ballots might skew right due to offshore military voters? idk. Cons are ahead by like 200 votes there already, so not really relevant to my point, regardless.)
We'll know next week for sure, but I'm optimistic that the Cons won't hold power to abuse trans kids (as promised in their platform) while increasing the deficit to $11B.