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Threat of war. OK, let’s think this through. The three threats I could think of are
It’s always better to be safe than sorry, but I wouldn’t overstate the risk of all out war or unrest.
A Russian attack is actually far more likely than you realise; There has been numerous signs of Russia prepareing for a direct attack on NATO. Now it won't be an all out invasion the goal will be to keep things murky enough were it's clearly an act of war but be easy enough to justify not getting involved. Their idea is that if once article 5 is invoked and enough big members refuse their obligations NATO will break and they can pick off members as they like.
Now the US under dumb donnie is very likely to ignore their legal obligations to their NATO allies and if the Russians have enough of their hooks into enough NATO members they might be able to engineer enough inaction to pull it off.
You have to understand that they genuinely believe they are fighting a proxy war against NATO in Ukraine and that in order to turn things around they have to beat NATO and that a lot of their internal propaganda is about how they could beat NATO in a fight (like claiming they could destroy England with a tsunami causing nuclear torpedo)
But European leaders know what game is being played here. Which is why the drone attacks haven't resulted in article 5 being invoked. But if Russia overplays their hand they could end in a conventional war with all of Europe. And their cards are hitting the table soon.
Russia doesn’t have the means for conventional war against NATO. If they did, the war in Ukraine would look much different. The current asymmetric attacks will increase, I am sure. But nothing to warrant Article 5. That would play into Putins hands and the Europeans know that.
Please don't insult Donnie Darko (movie character).
It's Donald "Tent Pegged" Rump or Drippy Diaper Don or whatever you can think of.
the water wars will start soon
Greece-Turkey-Cyrpus-Israel, too.
where in the world do three bullet points qualifiy as "thought through"?
In that part of the world where quantity is not quality. But if you do have your own thoughts, then feel free to share them. That’s what we’re here for.