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I did see footage of a drone attacking an Iron Dome site. Looked legit for what it's worth. Literally flew right up to it. Unfortunately no footage of the aftermath from what I saw. Must have been quite the explosion though. Anyway, this is hopeful news. Let's hope they keep this up and force Israel to back the fuck off.
Because you don't see the 99.99% that were stopped at the defenses, that's why a "swarm attack" would be so devastating.
It's basically the attack scene from Zion in The Matrix. A steady flow of (relatively) inexpensive attack drones. Most will fail, for a very very long time nothing gets thru. But eventually one slips thru or defenses need to reload, but one slips thru and hits something.
If it hits something important, it's now easier for every single one to get thru.
This was likely just proof of concept.
Send a wave out, aim at something random, and don't stop till one gets thru. That is invaluable Intel for when/where to aim a swarm attack. They don't need to breach everywhere, just one small section bearing insurmountable odds.
It would turn Iran into a super power on the world stage
Based on Ukraine, I think the have about a 40% success rate IIRC. If they get to the target it's obviously far higher. Armored vehicles may be able to shrug off a fair number of hits though, but they just take one (Un)lucky hit to be taken out. Usually they can get a mobility kill pretty quickly, and then pound it until it explodes or catches fire.
I don't see the same connection here that you do. A failure of Israel's defensive weapons would require them to go on the offensive. The status quo from before the October 7 attacks was tolerable to Israel because they could shoot down incoming threats but if they no longer can, they must neutralize the ability of their enemies to launch those threats.
I don't know why you would assume that they would go further on the offensive.
All studies, publications, and reports show that if Israel didn't have protection from retaliation, that they would be opposed to offensive operations if they experienced even a fraction of the horrors that they commit on others.
https://jewishcurrents.org/iron-dome-is-not-a-defensive-system
https://www.amacad.org/publication/daedalus/new-technologies-strategic-stability
Israel always wanted to be in perpetual conflict to continue it's expansion. Conflict means the need to have superior firepower and defensive capabilities which help continue perpetrating it's genocide unabated - it's what Bibi pushed for these many decades.
https://www.972mag.com/netanyahu-hamas-october-7-adam-raz/
But if you take away the superior defensive capabilities and the risk of continued aggression (which is why there was opposition to funding the Iron Dome in the US) then Israel would think twice about it's expansionist policies.
It's impressive that it's not already considered being "on the offensive" to invade and bomb multiple neighbouring countries, as well as actions like boarding boats in international waters and imprisoning the occupants.
I didn't say that Israel is not on the offensive right now - it is. My point is that if the Iron Dome system is indeed compromised, that's going to put pressure on Israel to stay on the offensive rather than to back down.
The iron working mean israel can stay on the offensive with no impunity
It's the impunity I hope they lose
Yes, but it will also require them to use alternative forces on defence, and it will also induce many Israelis to leave. This will create financial and manpower shortages. This might induce even more depraved behaviour in the short term, but I guess that's a risk Iran & Co. are willing to take to ensure long-term peace.
According to themselves, a day ending in y would require them to go on the offensive.
This is all a conflict of choice for them and the US and, if damage to the dome has any effect on them (which it probably won't, since they're so far gone down the colonialism genocide spiral), it would be to make them more cautious due to their own people being more vulnerable to consequences of their state terrorism.