this post was submitted on 08 May 2026
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There is another nuance to midterm redistricting that doesn't get considered: Time.
Districts are normally redrawn following the Census, which is done every 10 years, based on those current demographics. As the decade goes on, those demographics change, as new neighborhoods are built, populations shift, etc. Also, the people themselves change. A person who answers the census at 20, is a very different person than who answers the Census at 30.
So when they redraw the districts deep into the decade, they are doing it based on old, inaccurate data, and they are not going to get the precise response they are expecting. Add to that, the variable that special election results show that Trump is underwater far worse than polls are showing, badly losing elections in districts that had been strong MAGA and Trump supporters in the past.
These districts are being redrawn based on old data, and while it definitely skews things in their favor, it isn't the slam dunk they think it is, for multiple reasons. Mostly, MAGA's confidence that this situation saves the House and Senate for them is all show. Don't let them get you down. All it means is that they are going to cry and scream even louder when they lose.
And in 2031, when they redraw the districts following the 2030 census, Blue states should do everything they can do eliminate as many Red districts as possible. Fuck those pedophile traitors.