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In this scenario who is Archduke Franz Ferdnand?
You know, I’ll take a stab and say Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia! He came in on a reform slate but while they are experiencing quite rapid economic growth the country is boiling with ethnic tensions.
The Tigray War a half decade ago saw Ethiopia’s military join with Eritrea and local militias such as Fano against the TPLF, once the former ruling party of Ethiopia but reduced to controlling the Tigray region. It was a rather nasty affair with a lot of death and displacement (and accusations of genocide), and it was concluded by the Pretoria Agreement between the TPLF and Ethiopia. Other parties got cut out of the peace, which created a rift with Eritrea and Fano militias. Since then the situation worsened. Ethiopia is often having speeches about bringing Eritrea to heel and gaining control of its ports (the deal with Djibouti is expensive) which obviously doesn’t help relations with that neighbor (also Eritrea is claimed to be arming Ethiopian rebels) and Fano has grown stronger and more organized and armed itself after taking much of the rural Amhara countryside. There is still an existing insurgency in the Oromo areas of the country and there were still clashes with the TPLF earlier this year.
Ethiopia is friendly with Somaliland with which it publically wanted to get a port access for recognition deal but then backed down from in the face of international pressure and Turkish mediation with Somalia. The UAE has moved much of its equipment that was based in Yemen, Somaliland and Puntland over to Ethiopia after the debacle from the failure of the South Yemen separatists that also sent the UAE’s relations with Somalia to the dumpster when the separatist leadership was transported to the UAE via Somaliland.
With respect to Sudan it was discovered a while back that Ethiopia has been recruiting and hosting RSF training camps on the UAE’s dime. Sudan is also very recently (Reuters reported it today) claiming it has evidence to prove that drone attacks on Sudan are being launched from an Ethiopian airport. For their part Ethiopia is now claiming that Sudan’s recognized government is supporting the TPLF and infringing on Ethiopia’s territory. (They have a disputed area called Al-Fashaga). I think there is some exile group of Tigray people fighting in Sudan for the SAF but I forget their name, I think it was Army 4-something but I can’t remember and I’m drawing a blank.
So, aside from the ongoing Iran situation, that ring of Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea and their internal messes are where I would say there is the least stability and most opportunity for friction between the blocks.
Thanks for that write-up. It's not an area of geopolitics I'm familiar with.
I'm sure that blocks are establishing themselves, and with everything happening now, alliances and such will accelerate.
The UAE and KSA are fascist AF and Western bootlickers, eg USA/Israel aligned.