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I think maybe you misunderstood the compact.
I'm your example, the states who signed the compact would all put their votes to candidate Y, assuming they had more popular votes in all states.
It's not "join us or be punished", it's "we will implement the will of the majority, not matter what".
So, as in my original comment, you would expect the blue states to graciously allow Texas + Florida + a few other deep red states to unilaterally declare the winner by leveraging the compact's EC votes? When push comes to shove this compact will either be kingmakers or fall apart.
The 17th Amendement requires the direct election of Senators. Blue state accept red states' votes for those.
If you're going to make an argument based on bad faith of states, then the US basically ceases to exist as a republic, regardless of whether you have the compact.
What about recent American politics gives you the impression that states will act in good faith? Hell, look back even farther at the slave state collusion for Mexican territory, secession, Reconstruction fuckery, Jim crow, etc...
The only limit to states acting in bad faith has historically been the federal government. When states start fucking around too much, laws like the Voting Rights Act get drawn up to claw more power away from them.
IMO the state-federation experiment has all but failed and the majority of good faith states need a proper convention to build a modern government. Choosing now of all times to put your faith in those anti-democratic, Christo-fascist slave states is the dumbest option possible.