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Not a legal argument but there is at least one state that already floated the idea of undermining the whole thing by refusing to publish their vote totals until all the electors are gathered to vote thereby preventing the popular vote from being determined ahead of time.
Then couldn't they just ignore that state in the tally? It's just a quick way to disenfranchise your own state.
A red state refuses to publish their voter tally.
Every blue state in the compact chooses to ignore that state.
Since they can't know the true popular vote count, every red state in the compact has cover to refuse to cast blue EC votes as required by the compact.
If you and your state overwhelmingly votes for candidate A, yet your state's EC votes are cast for Trump's third term, you (or people like you) are going to demand your state withdraw from the compact.
If the compact ever actually affects an election, it will be scrapped in a hot minute.