this post was submitted on 24 Mar 2026
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I mean, the Fremen predominantly lived in areas that the rest of the galaxy considered uninhabitable, in sietches hidden in caves, with a better understanding of their planet than anyone else. You can call it a mistake, but how exactly were the Harkonnen's supposed to accurately gauge Fremen manpower? I wouldn't call it a fuckup on their part, more a strength of the Fremens.
Leto sent an advanced team to do some basic recon ahead of their arrival. When they did arrive, they got a report (I believe from Gurney) stating that there were far more Fremen than previously believed.
True, but given the general military traditions/strategy of the Harkonnen, I doubt they would have been able to get close enough to the Fremen to learn that
Hum... By having any bit of humility and looking.
But that's one point where the book is completely realistic.
Okay, you look. you only see empty desert, because that's what the Fremen want you to see, and they have complete control over what the enemy gets to see of them.
Like surveiling them as an outsider is impossible. Leto sent Gurney as a peaceful envoy seeking cooperation, and the best Gurney could come up with is "there's a lot more than we thought." Considering Harkonnen rule, there's no shot any advance scouts would learn as much; in fact, I'd say most wouldn't return.
They have several opportunities to see the Fremen riding the worms already in the book. As you said Leto discovered they were much more numerous than it was widely believed. And that is with just a short occupation before everything happens.
Harkonnem certainly had plenty of opportunities to discover he was underestimating them.