this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2026
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A recession is coming — not the manicured kind economists dress up in euphemism, but a real one, the kind that redefines the word retroactively. Niall Ferguson has been mapping the terrain: geopolitical shocks, energy disruption, inflation that won’t be reasoned with. History, he notes, does not reward economies caught in that particular combination. It never has.

But this one carries something extra, something structural.

For years, the American economy ran on a dangerous illusion. Markets soared. Asset prices ballooned. Those already inside the system — with capital, with cushions, with connections — accumulated wealth at a pace that would have seemed obscene even a decade ago. Stocks surged. Property values became punchlines told at the expense of renters.

For everyone else — those without a trust fund or a safety net — it has been a slow slide into the abyss. Groceries crept upward, then sprinted. Rent became a monthly reckoning. Credit cards filled the gap, then tightened it. The middle class now occupies an unfamiliar position in American life — more likely to descend the ladder than to climb it.

Recessions do not hit such societies evenly. They amplify what already exists. The wealthy absorb, the rest surrender.

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[–] cmbabul@lemmy.world 44 points 2 weeks ago (6 children)

Bro America is heading for a depression and potential Balkanization

[–] 4grams@awful.systems 19 points 2 weeks ago

Been saying it since his first election. I still do not think America survives the orange fascist.

[–] RabbitBBQ@lemmy.world 7 points 2 weeks ago

It would take too long to list all the reasons why this result is increasingly likely.

[–] Tollana1234567@lemmy.today 6 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

i prefer balkanization, so we cant get rid of the gop welfare states once and for all.

[–] Spacehooks@reddthat.com 5 points 2 weeks ago

Im Worried about them having nukes. Can't let toddlers have access or worst sell them off.

[–] corsicanguppy@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Balkanization could help us get back to some of America quicker. What was it like for the Balkans before?

[–] A_norny_mousse@piefed.zip 5 points 2 weeks ago

It was Yugoslavia. Then war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars

To extremely simplify a complex situation, I'd say some countries are better off now, others worse.

[–] A_norny_mousse@piefed.zip 3 points 2 weeks ago

Balkanization doesn't sound like the worst outcome here. Frankly, it doesn't even sound like a bad option. The US already have clearly bordered states, this could even happen without bloodshed.

I can't say anything about how likely it is though. But something's gotta give if you ask me. Democrats winning the next election isn't enough.

[–] NoneOfUrBusiness@fedia.io 2 points 2 weeks ago

Wow that sounds nice. Where do I donate?

[–] gndagreborn@lemmy.world 20 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

Just a side note, but this article reads like chatgpt

[–] Flames5123@sh.itjust.works 15 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

12 em dashes. You’re right.

[–] gndagreborn@lemmy.world 15 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Parallel sentence structure, word triplets, unnecessary emphasis, exagerration. It always grosses me out when I see AI writing.

Common words include delve, surrender, empower, dynamic, amplify, etc.

[–] hitmyspot@aussie.zone 7 points 2 weeks ago

And says nothing more than the expanded headline.

[–] chicken@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 points 2 weeks ago

So much

Not X but Y

[–] spaghettiwestern@sh.itjust.works 12 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Let's see here... Billions paid for illegal tariffs, massive increases in food prices, a collapse of international tourism, reduction in all travel due to the refusal to fund TSA, massive DOGE layoffs, further layoffs and closures of multiple government agencies, multiple government shutdowns, fuel price increases we're just seeing the start of, double digit electricity rate increases, doubling and tripling of healthcare costs for millions of Americans, and international boycotts of American products. That's just some of the dumpster fire Trump and the Grand Old Pedophiles have provided us. Too bad there's not a way to include Trump's misery factor.

We'll be very lucky if it isn't a full blown depression.

[–] A_norny_mousse@piefed.zip 3 points 2 weeks ago

massive increases in food prices

I'd like to break this down a little. In my EU country, compared to pre-Covid *memories*, a rough estimate would be an increase of 25%. I think any additional increase due to fuel prices raised by the Iran war hasn't hit us yet.

Can you relate to this rough percentage? Has the Iran war fully "hit" groceries yet?

[–] classic@fedia.io 10 points 2 weeks ago

As long as we don't call it a depression we'll be fine

[–] Goferking0@ttrpg.network 6 points 2 weeks ago

But we never got out of the one trump started even before covid...

[–] A_norny_mousse@piefed.zip 5 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

not the manicured kind economists dress up in euphemism, but a real one

Yeah that's going to be lost on most people.

The middle class now occupies an unfamiliar position in American life — more likely to descend the ladder than to climb it.

Hmm. Hasn't this been quoted as the reason for MAGA's rise?

[–] sleepmode@lemmy.world 5 points 2 weeks ago

It’s already here.

[–] AlecSadler@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 2 weeks ago
[–] tlekiteki@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 2 weeks ago