this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2025
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[–] bulwark@lemmy.world 273 points 2 weeks ago (12 children)

"So it's sort of like when we fed cows with cows and got mad cow disease." is an amazing analogy for the current state of LLMs.

[–] BCsven@lemmy.ca 6 points 2 weeks ago

Oh theses cows went wobbly, fell over and died, better feed them to our good stock to save money.

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[–] Paradachshund@lemmy.today 74 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Everyone's talking about the mad cow part, but this is also a really excellent point:

"Some of these people trying to define the future of humanity, creativity, or whatever it is using AI, are not the most humane or creative people. So they're sort of saying, 'We're better at being human than you are.' It's obviously not true."

[–] RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world 19 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Humanity and creativity are not on the CEO’s resumeé. Making shareholders happy by increasing profits and padding the CEO’s ego certainly is.

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[–] onlinepersona@programming.dev 73 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Please be a nice bubble and pop soon, AI.

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 12 points 2 weeks ago (9 children)

Stupid question: if you think it's a good idea but don't know when the price will go up, you just buy stock and wait. But if you think it's a bad idea and don't know when the price will go down, is there any long-term alternative to shorting that doesn't require betting on the date?

[–] TotallyHuman@lemmy.ca 14 points 2 weeks ago

If you imagine it like making a bet, nobody's going to take a bet with you where they pay you when it pops, but there's no time after which you pay them -- because they'd never get any money out of that bet. Buying stock is different because it's a thing you can own, but you can't invest in the idea of something failing, because there isn't any business which will take your money and make something more likely to fail.

You could buy every stock except AI-related stocks, which I believe is functionally equivalent to buying an index fund and shorting AI stocks based on the percentage of AI stocks in the index fund. You could also think about what businesses would do well (or less poorly) in the case of an AI-instigated crash, and then buy those.

[–] definitemaybe@lemmy.ca 8 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (4 children)

Yes, you can with derivatives: buy out-of-money puts.

Derivatives are financial instruments that pay out based on market movements. A classic example is crops: using derivatives, farmers can, essentially, "lock in" the price they sell their goods at. This allows them more stability, since they know in advance how much they'll be paid for their crops. (And they'll separately buy crop Insurance to cover their risk for crops failing, most likely.)

Puts are a derivative that is a contract for the right to sell an asset at a given price (the "strike price") on a given date. Usually, these are closed out by paying the cash value at the end, not actually selling the stocks.

Out of money means that the strike price is below the current market price. If they are still out of money at the end of the contract term, they are literally worthless. But, if the underlying asset (like NVidea stock) crashes, then you can earn the difference between the strike price and the market price.

What makes this speculation* strategy effective is that the market usually prices in a low probability of a major price decrease, so they're (relatively) cheap. They also have limited downside risk—at worst, you lose everything you spent buying them. For deeply out-of-money puts, you can make a lot of money with a huge crash, but most of the time you "just" lose all your money.

This contrasts with short selling where you have unlimited downside risk. With short selling, you're basically borrowing someone else's share and immediately selling it at the current market price, then you need to buy it back from the market when you close out the position. So if you sold it for $100, and need to buy it back at $1000, you're royally fucked. (You won't be allowed to get that far, though; you need to keep assets in your account to cover the cost, so you'd be forced to continually "pony up" more cash as the price rises, until you can't make a payment and you're forced to close out the position, losing all your initial money and all the money you were forced to keep adding as it rose.)

But good luck with that strategy; I imagine NVidea puts are pretty expensive right now since a lot of people are making this exact bet. As such, people issuing/selling puts are demanding a lot of money to pay for them taking on risk.

* This is "speculation", not "investment". Investment requires, by definition, capital put towards productive assets—in other words, it needs to be expected to return an income stream of some kind, like interest, profits, or dividend payments. Speculation is betting on the direction of price movement on an asset—"gambling", effectively, but with fancy investment words. Like in the farmer example above, they're gambling that prices won't go up, since they won't gain any of the benefit from rising prices. That type of speculation reduces risk—unlike what you are asking about.

There are other ways that derivatives can reduce risk, but that's not what you were asking about here.

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[–] bookmeat@lemmynsfw.com 7 points 2 weeks ago

Holding cash is a position. It also gives you the most flexibility, and low risk, but also low reward.

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[–] Wilco@lemmy.zip 41 points 2 weeks ago (7 children)
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[–] ozymandias@lemmy.dbzer0.com 22 points 2 weeks ago

i’m still convinced the only reason they’re pushing it so hard is to invalidate their Kompromat….
we’re already at the point where people don’t believe videos they don’t like.

[–] als@lemmy.blahaj.zone 9 points 2 weeks ago (52 children)
[–] jonne@infosec.pub 104 points 2 weeks ago (11 children)

He left rockstar after red dead redemption II, partly because he was tired of dealing with those execs.

[–] MonkderVierte@lemmy.zip 25 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Tired of dealing with greed-flated, not fully rounded humans? I can relate.

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[–] havocpants@lemmy.world 8 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

While I like it as a simile, we didn't feed cows to cows - we fed them sheep infected with scrapie, at least that's the theory of how mad cow disease started. I say "we", I wasn't involved in the process, I just live here.

[–] OshaqHennessey@midwest.social 23 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

Mad cow disease is caused by prions from dead cow brains infecting the healthy brains of living cows. It's kind of the cow equivalent of Kuru.

[–] SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca 6 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Those prions can also infect humans leading to Creutzfeld Jacob syndrome. Prions can also come from wild deer species and infect through venison.

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[–] greedytacothief@lemmy.dbzer0.com 6 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

I thought it wasn't just any prions, but specific prions that replicate out of control after some time, depending on genetics. So cows were fed unclean bone meal from sheep and pigs and cows all mixed together, and they think some scrapie infected sheep spine/brain got in there and it spread to cows. Then it spread from there because we didn't think cows could get it and even if they could we were pretty certain humans couldn't get it. But we were wrong.

[–] OshaqHennessey@midwest.social 6 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Yeah, pretty sure you're right. Though I'll admit I've forgotten much more than I know on the topic.

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[–] SethTaylor@lemmy.world 7 points 2 weeks ago

Total rockstar

[–] Bebopalouie@lemmy.ca 6 points 2 weeks ago

Agreed. Moo.

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