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Over 4,000 schools shut down nationwide as student numbers plunge - The Korea Times
(www.koreatimes.co.kr)
this post was submitted on 29 Dec 2025
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They have the lowest birth rates in the world, beating Japan by some margin. Since most of the world is heading that direction, is important to watch how these countries handle the issue, so we can prepare better
SK is not going to be a good example because, in addition to the usual reasons for a declining birth rate, they also have some pretty extreme racism, sexism, and a work culture that even worse than Japan in many ways. Why would you want to have kids in South Korea‽
Let's say you do have a wife and kids... Good luck getting home to see them on time on the regular!
What's incredible is that the government's stance on this situation is that it is preserving their culture. What they really mean is that they're keeping out foreigners and not cross-breeding with the riffraff (which is... The rest of the world).
They will "preserve" themselves right into extinction.
With countries as homogenous as Japan and South Korea, I don't see racism having a statistically significant effect
Sexism is an issue in both cultures, but if that is a major factor why is Japan's fertility rate right between Spain and Finland?
Work culture in South Korea is certainly problematic, although I would again bring up Spain and Finland. I would also note Japan's work culture has had a massive shift over the past couple decades. The average Japanese worker works far fewer hours than the average American worker, and fewer than the OECD average. The '90s stereotypes about Japanese work culture are no longer true
Here's a better question: Why would you want to have kids in North Korea?
The fertility rate in the north is more than double the South, but here's a more interesting fact: The birthrate in the North has been steadily declining for decades in almost lockstep with the South (note: there is a bit of wonkiness with a couple years in both data sources. Ignore the outliers), just at a slightly slower pace
I used this site to compare country pairs. With the Koreas you can see shared inflection points, such as in 1981, and a general trend line that looks the same
Then compare Russia and Ukraine. A much more volatile fertility rate. In 1986/1987, both countries share a local maximum, followed by a very sharp decline that continues until a local minimum right around 2000. We don't see this pattern with the others (although they all seem to follow the same trend)
Finally you have the US and Canada. Shared local maximum in 1990/1991, and again in 2008. Both closely follow each other in terms of fertility rate inflection points, but not at the some times as other pairs
Also of note: All the lowest fertility rate countries (South Korea, Taiwan, and China) are geographically near each other, with very similar primary industries - high-tech manufacturing
My hypothesis: The most important factor is environmental. Likely an air pollutant of some kind (maybe several kinds)
I don't have much evidence for this other than correlated fertility rates, but it's the only thing I can think of that fits the data
Pollution would make sense if people were trying to have kids but couldn't. But they're not trying to have kids at all!
The more likely explanation—related to tech—is that we don't need kids anymore. For 99% of human history, children were necessary and not having kids was basically impossible (horny kids and no birth control). Kids were how humans kept alive/stable as well as expanded their power and influence! It's also how they got cared for in old age (though that's a much lesser concern because I seriously doubt humans of the past thought that hard about such things when living to 40 was considered amazing).
Now we have birth control and—in Western societies—stability/safety is much more likely if you don't have kids. We've basically flipped the script on our evolution.
You want people to have kids? Flip the script back! Make anyone under 30 without kids pay a massive tax that pays for the kids of people who have them! Basically, make everyone who didn't have kids pay child support.
Make having kids the best damned economic decision anyone can make with diminishing returns after two (kids).
While that's certainly a contributing factor worldwide, I think the data contradicts it quite a bit. Japan, as an example, has the elderly heavily rely on their children as a retirement plan. Far more so than countries like the US that has a higher birthrate. Also include that while undeveloped countries like Kenya have some of the highest birthrates in the world, it's far less than similarly developed countries had 100 years ago
There is a bit of a misconception there with average life expectancy. Once you made it to adulthood, your life expectancy was far higher than would be expected from an average life expectancy of ~40. It was brought down heavily by all the young deaths
I don't doubt this is a strong factor, but if it were the largest factor, wouldn't we expect countries with strong social programs like Norway to have much higher birth rates? I suppose those social programs would tend to correlate with birth control
I was unfamiliar with Norway's program so I looked it up...
49 weeks of maternity leave? FUCK YEAH!
$160/month (USD equivalent) for kids under 6? Not nearly enough! That is of negligibe impact and doesn't come close to offsetting the costs of raising a child.
My two takeaways from this, learning about Norway's programs:
Also, "when everyone gets a subsidy, no one gets a subsidy" (my own saying). It seems inevitable that daycare costs would increase by the subsidy amount in order to capture it as profit. Basically, long-term subsidies like that ultimately fail because of basic economics. They can work fine in the short term, though.
I still stand by what I said: Having kids makes you less economically stable and until we fix that, fertility rates will continue to decline.
Seems like the biggest thing that needs to be fixed though is housing costs.