this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2025
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Hurling ordure at the TREACLES, especially those closely related to LessWrong.
AI-Industrial-Complex grift is fine as long as it sufficiently relates to the AI doom from the TREACLES. (Though TechTakes may be more suitable.)
This is sneer club, not debate club. Unless it's amusing debate.
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Even if true, why couldn't the electrochemical processes be simulated too? I don't think it's necessary to strictly and completely reproduce a biological brain to produce thought in a computer, but even if it is, it's "just" a matter of scale. If you can increase the fidelity of the simulation with effectively infinite computing power, what would it be missing? It'd have to be something that can't be predicted, can't even have its unpredictability described with an equation (I don't know what any coin flip will turn up as, but I do know how to write a program that produces indistinguishable results from a real coin for a simulation), so it's just changing all the time and follows no rules whatsoever, but also you can't just write a program that does its own "random crap that can't be predicted" simulation because the real one is somehow also so precise that it's the only thing that makes consciousness work and a mechanical one isn't good enough?
As a summary,
(I'm going to say "you" in this response even though you're stating some of these as arguments from the author and not yourself, so feel free to take this as a response to the author and not you personally if you're playing devil's advocate and don't actually think some of these things.)
But it does take place in the real world. Where do you think the computers are going to be? Computers can and do exist in and interact with the real world, they always have, so that box is already checked. You can imagine the computations as happening in a sort of mathematical void outside of the universe, but that's mostly only useful for reasoning about a system. After you do all that, you move electrons around in a box and see the effects with your own human senses.
Well, yeah, current LLMs are tiny and stupid. Something bigger, and probably not an LLM at all, might not be.
It doesn't have to actually fit reality perfectly, and it doesn't have to be able to predict reality like a grand unified theory would. It just needs to behave similarly enough to produce the same effects that brains do. It hasn't been shown to be possible, but there's also no reason to think we can never get close enough to reproduce it.
Yes it does. If they're indistinguishable, there is no difference.
I don't have any experience writing physics simulators myself, but they definitely exist. Even as a toy example, the iOS app Dice by PCalc does its die rolls by simulating a tossed die in 3D space instead of a random number generator. (Naturally, the parameters of the throw are generated, the simulation is just for fun, but again, it's a distinction without a difference. If the results have the same properties, the mechanism doesn't matter.) If I give you a billion random numbers, do you think you could tell if I used the app or a real die? Even if you could, would using one versus the other be the difference between a physics simulation being accurate or inaccurate enough to produce consciousness?
Of course. This is addressing an argument made by the post that computers are inherently incapable of intelligence or consciousness, even assuming sufficient computation power, storage space, and knowledge of physics and neurology. And I don't even think that you need to simulate a brain to produce mechanical consciousness, I think there would be other, more efficient means well before we get to that point, but sufficiently detailed simulation is something we have no reason to think is impossible.
Why not? And even if so, what's stopping you from bringing in the externalities as well?
What are the rules of the filing system? If they're complex enough, and executed sufficiently quickly that I can converse with it in my lifetime, let me be the judge of whether I think it's intelligent.
I think that this is your best path forward. Go simulate some rigid-body physics. Simulate genetics with genetic algorithms. Simulate chemistry with Petri nets. Simulate quantum computing. Simulate randomness with random-number generators. You'll learn a lot about the limitations that arise at each step as we idealize the real world into equations that are simple enough to compute. Fundamentally, you're proposing that Boltzmann brains are plausible, and the standard physics retort (quoting Carroll 2017, Why Boltzmann brains are bad) is that they "are cognitively unstable: they cannot simultaneously be true and justifiably believed."
A lesser path would be to keep going with consciousness and neuroscience. In that case, go read Hofstadter 2007, 'I' is a strange loop to understand what it could possibly mean for a pattern to be substrate-independent.
No, you're likely to suffer the ELIZA Effect. Previously, on Awful, I've explained what's going on in terms of memes. If you want to read a sci-fi story instead, I'd recommend Watts' Blindsight. You are overrating the phenomenon of intelligence.
I'm clearly failing to communicate my thoughts, and doing it in the wrong forum, but I appreciate the links, I'm excited to learn new things from them.