this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2026
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Climate
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Every few years there's a headline like this.
...
Not because people are dredging up old news, but because the collapse estimate keeps getting revised to be sooner.
Not sooner so much as more likely. We're into the 40% to 50% range now
It's kinda the same thing. The curve of probability over time is shifting closer to the present (faster than we approach it through the normal passage of time).
And the model gets refined making the predictions more accurate and reliable.