DUOL shares have fallen more than 78% from their May 2025 high, and that’s before its nearly 25% fall in premarket trading today.
I've said before that one of the very few good things generative "AI" may do to the world is accelerating the enshittification cycle so much that it kills stuff that was already terrible and a drain on society (social media; platformization; curation algorithms…). Speaking as a linguist who speaks 4 languages and has read the literature on second language acquisition, it has always been my position that the Duolingo method is useless—it feels like you are learning a language, but you can spend infinite hours with it and gold a full tree and you'll still get nowhere, and if you put a fraction of the time in about any other method, including doing pen-and-paper drills with old-fashioned paper-based textbooks, you'd have progressed much faster.
And old-fashioned grammar drills suck, too. It's just that Duolingo really, really sucks.
(Methods that work better: 1) Find an intensive "conversation"-type course, or anything that is labelled as "natural" or "immersion" or "storytelling" methods; or get tandem partners; or online coaches such as in italki; failing that, join a conventional language course, the more "intensive" the better; work on these until you absorb basic grammar and vocabulary, focusing on spoken language not writing; 2) Once this bootstrap period is over, start talking to people, watching media, or reading stuf that interests you, in large quantities and every day; do not wait until you're "good" to move into the input stage, start actually using the language for things you wanted it for, as soon as possible, which is sooner than you think; partial comprehension is fine.)
Of course I hope Duolingo dies horribly in a fire after it backstabbed its workers with the "AI memo", but even if it didn't, the world is better off without it.
One lesson we can get from this: Consider that overnight 25% drop in investment, which may well prove to be the coup the grâce. It was not caused by Duo losing users or enshittifying with "AI", but by the opposite: investors mass panicked at the company setting its target revenue too low, as in a mere… 1.22 billion, rather than the 1.26 billion the investors wanted. Now the reason Duolingo is not chasing that higher goal is that they're seeing the writing on the wall, and went into damage control mode: they're pulling down a bit on squeezing their current paying users and trying to improve the experience of the free tier, in an attempt to reverse the bleed and bring in more customers.
In other words, Duolingo tried to slow down the slightest tiny bit on enshittification—3% less cash—and this already got swift punishment from the market gods. With capitalism, there is no long-term thinking: you're expected to provide the richest people on Earth with infinite growth of their ever-increasing profits squeezed from customers paying every month more and more, now and forever, or you'll be taken out and replaced by someone willing to try.
Edit : I got lots of questions like "if not Duolingo then what do you suggest?" The full answer is "literally anything else", but I've cleaned up a couple of my longer answers and wrote these blog posts: 1) on comprehensive reading, 2) on tandem exchange.
Man i love to hear the news about Duolingo and to hear a linguist's opinion on it. I've always loved languages and have basically always had one that I'm studying at any given time. Of course I've tried Duolingo in that.
I moved to Denmark in 2024 and have been learning the language. I have a bunch of friends and acquaintances in various stages of learning it, to varying degrees of success. It's been my running theory that Duolingo is the most antithetical to success tool you can use. It uses up effort and time for almost no result, while making you feel like you should be better because you're now "level whatever".
Immersion and trying and failing are so fucking good for learning, it's insane. I've definitely been too hard on myself in the past comparing myself to people who have learned by living somewhere and how much better/faster they've learned.
It is my pleasure to inform you that the research supports your conclusions on all counts :)
I fully agree with your insight on how Duolingo sets you up for failure, and it has another trap, too—one common to all methods that are based on "diligently do these drills every day"* : You think that you should be getting somewhere because it's so boring and it sucks so much. You did the work, right? You're suffering, therefore you must be levelling up. Then after 4 years of doing French grammar drills on school or French vocabulary drills in Duolingo, you still can't even ask for directions or read Le Petit Prince, and you figure it's because you're such a lazy loser with no discipline who should have drilled more, instead of spending all day browsing Instagram or playing Animal Crossing.
When actually what you should have done was to browse Instagram in French or play Animal Crossing in French. Perversely, real language learning—we call it "acquisition" rather than "learning", to emphasise how it's an instinctive, subconscious process—happens optimally when you're in a state of flow where you don't even notice you're using the second language anymore, i.e. when you're not suffering.
* There's a very limited number of things that you do actually have to consciously drill; mostly writing systems, maybe also the phonemes at the beginning (this part is debated). Luckily, almost all writing systems in current use are very simple and you'll get them nailed down in no time, as long as you already know the basics of the spoken language (remember, writing isn't made for foreigners, it's made for native speakers to represent the words they already know). The exception is if you're learning Chinese or Japanese, in which case there's no way out of drilling characters, forever. my degree in Japanese is from over ten years ago and I can read Japanese pretty fine these days and I'm still drilling characters. It is still the case that it's much easier to learn the characters the way the Japanese and Chinese peoples do it, i.e. after you know the spoken language (at least to a basic degree, say A2 or so).
@mirrorwitch
For me, learning the grammar is faster with a bit of book learning. Deriving it all completely from everyday use takes way more effort.
Book learning definitely can't stand alone but it really helps.
@frank