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Leaving the EU has reduced Britain’s GDP by up to 8pc, according to a devastating US study

The latest such assessment comes in the form of a paper from the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). This concludes that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by 6pc to 8pc, far more than most previous estimates.

Investment is worse off by between 12pc and 18pc, employment by between 3pc and 4pc, and productivity also by between 3pc and 4pc. There have been few more devastating assessments than this.

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[–] rayyy@lemmy.world 15 points 15 hours ago

Brexit AND the two elections of the orange felon/pedophile have been unmitigated successes for Putin.

[–] shapeofthings@piefed.ca 15 points 16 hours ago

Russian propaganda troll farms amplified British and American racism and xenophobia, leading both countries populations to make utterly disastrous decisions, voting for Brexit and Trump respectively. Putin's small investment in targeted propaganda is resulting in massive economic and rotational damage to both countries.

[–] qevlarr@lemmy.world 7 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago)

surprised Pikachu face

Everybody saw this coming

[–] Tollana1234567@lemmy.today 12 points 21 hours ago

and russia backed the brexit movement, shouldve known better.

[–] fodor@lemmy.zip 31 points 1 day ago

Nobody wants to talk about it? ... That's not true. People who pushed it through don't want to talk about it, and neither do their allies. Everyone else would like to see accountability, right? Get rid of those shady bastards who push nationalism by pretending it's good economics.

[–] Angelevo@feddit.nl 3 points 16 hours ago

Entry is the better way. <3

[–] CircaV@lemmy.ca 23 points 1 day ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

I could have told the UK that before they left the EU. But they listened to billionaires Rees-Mogg, Truss and the like and voted for something that enriched the aristocrats and oligarchs and shafted the average person. The UK fell for the oldest trick in the book “brown people are taking your jobs” when it was really a get rich quick scheme for oligarchs, aristocrats and the 1%. You made your bed UK - now lie in it 🤷🤷‍♀️🤷‍♂️

[–] Bubbaonthebeach@lemmy.ca 44 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Same as the US voting in Trump, the warnings were there before the vote.

[–] Treczoks@lemmy.world 1 points 14 hours ago

And the same reason: Putin

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

IMHO part of the problem was that economics was more a branch of philosophy than a science until the 1970s, but the public never got the memo when this changed.

So we get doofuses who act like their economics claims are purely a matter of opinion, not falsifiable hypotheses. Try arguing for a UBI and watch how many chalkboard economists tell you what they imagine would happen, completely ignoring all experimental results.

[–] fodor@lemmy.zip 12 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It turns out economics is still more hand wavy than substantive science. Economists like to pretend otherwise, but don't let them fool you. After all, what kind of scientific field would conflate "the economy" with "rich people's yachts" and just ... keep on doing that ... even when exposed?

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 6 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I agree that conflating a healthy economy with stock market growth is bogus. This misconception predates the 1970s, and is the same sort of chalkboard economics I'm talking about.

The chalkboard:

The results:

That doesn't mean that economics as a whole is bullshit. It means that monetary policy in particular has been heavily propagandized. An economist who agrees with you will find themselves unable to obtain funding and ostracized. Just like Galileo was... But it was geocentrism - not all of astronomy - that was unscientific. Science is how you know if you're a Galileo or just a crank.

You don't use science to show that you're right, you use science to become right.

Randall Munroe

IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor. They're pissing on our legs and telling us it's raining. As more and more people are forced into poverty while the stock market soars, more of us are rightfully asking these questions. So what are we gonna do about it? Do you trust your savings to someone who insists that the economy is rich people's yachts?

[–] qevlarr@lemmy.world 3 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor.

Watch them bail out AI soon. The inmates are running the asylum

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 1 points 14 hours ago

No doubt.

In 2008, the bailout supporters denied that it was a moral hazard.

In 2020, it became "many" times. Nothing ever happens only twice.

[–] squaresinger@lemmy.world 2 points 15 hours ago

IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor. They’re pissing on our legs and telling us it’s raining. As more and more people are forced into poverty while the stock market soars, more of us are rightfully asking these questions. So what are we gonna do about it? Do you trust your savings to someone who insists that the economy is rich people’s yachts?

It's all just a matter of goals. Is economics there to help the poor, the middle class or the rich? Depending on your answer, it's either an absolute failure or an unmitigated success.

And considering the golden rule ("The one who has the gold makes the rules"), it's quite clear what's happening there. All of the economics technobabble is only there to distract and justify, not to actually make sense.

[–] devolution@lemmy.world 105 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (4 children)

Brexit is an example of what happens when Conservatives are allowed out of the basement and allowed to dictate national policy.

[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 12 points 1 day ago (2 children)

haven't "conservatives" (i use "" because they never conserve anything) ruled britisn for like...the last 50 or so years?

[–] palordrolap@fedia.io 19 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Well, there was a period in the 90s through to the early 2000s where we had a centre-left party (New Labour) running the show and mostly improving things, but then 9/11 and the Iraq war happened and the country went scurrying back to the Conservatives again.

The conspiracy nut that lives in my brain is convinced Putin's taking control of Russia in 2000 has everything to do with every single bit of the above after "but then".

We currently have New Labour (now just "Labour") in charge again, but politically they smell an awful lot like the pre-Thatcherite Conservatives.

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[–] devolution@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

And isn't that why the UK is the shittiest Western European country compared to its neighbors?

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[–] manxu@piefed.social 48 points 1 day ago (3 children)

I think the worst part of Brexit is not that it reduced UK GDP by a fixed amount, but that the damage is getting worse with time. Brits could probably have lived with a temporary setback followed by faster growth, but it's becoming pretty evident that the UK has been permanently damaged and growth will lag peer economies' for the foreseeable future.

And yet, Reform UK is looking pretty good in the polls. Make that make sense, they were the most ardent proponents of Brexit.

[–] MrScottyTay@sh.itjust.works 28 points 1 day ago

Because the majority that voted Brexit and still believe in it were never in it for the economics, at least not the kind backed by evidence, because in their minds the economy will get better for the average working man once all of the "foreigners" are no longer here.

And because of how loud this minority are, they've gotten the more gullible of the population that don't know any better to think that it's true, because they've heard it from John, Barry, Gaz and that guy on TV.

[–] mirshafie@europe.pub 8 points 1 day ago

They were hoping to benefit from a stronger relationship to the USA, and being the nexus between the USA and the EU. But the USA is just shitting on all of its supposed friends, and the EU is slowly but surely withdrawing from the Atlantic partnership.

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[–] Augustiner@lemmy.world 63 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Interesting to read this in the telegraph. If I recall correctly they were pro leave during the campaign leading up to the referendum.

[–] TheOctonaut@mander.xyz 8 points 1 day ago

They are pro-Tory. The Tories greatest threat right now is being eaten alive by the Reform party. Doesn't matter if the Telegraph have to take a hit, blaming Farage not the Tories for the economy is worth it.

[–] ininewcrow@lemmy.ca 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Because they report the news and inform the public .... their content just tends to have a four or five year lag compared to reality.

It's the Torygraph, they deal lightly at best with news and informing the public, which is what makes it very surprising. If they're reporting it then reality is even worse

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[–] Aljernon@lemmy.today 19 points 1 day ago

There was a reason Russia intelligence was pushing so hard for it

[–] tehn00bi@lemmy.world 11 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] ripcord@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago
[–] thethunderwolf@lemmy.dbzer0.com 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

is "pc" "%"? Seems like a less clear and understandable way of saying it, why do this?

[–] tal@lemmy.today 12 points 1 day ago
[–] Naich@lemmings.world 27 points 1 day ago
[–] Lemmyoutofhere@lemmy.ca 12 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

leopardsatemyface

Brexit never shoulda happened, there I said it

[–] theuniqueone@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 1 day ago

Who could have seen this coming? It was totally unpredictable?

[–] jaykrown@lemmy.world 9 points 1 day ago

I mean, it's been pretty clear for a while now. Side question, why use "pc" instead of "%"? A bit confusing.

[–] Treczoks@lemmy.world 7 points 1 day ago

That was one of the reasons why Putin got behind it, and made it a "success".

[–] anonymous111@lemmy.world 5 points 1 day ago

Pah! I think you'll find we're tired of listening to experts.

/s

[–] Gammelfisch@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago

Nigel is a POS SVR asset. Another FAFO example of fucked up nationalism and racism. If you dumb bastards want to return, you're more than welcome to, but I do want to see any shit from UKIP and Nigel can shove off to fucking Moscow.

[–] NatakuNox@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago
[–] jjjalljs@ttrpg.network 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Will anyone learn from this? Will any of the people who were wrong lose credibility? Doubtful.

[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

best we can do is a bailout -western government around the world, probably

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