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While fears of an imminent coup are exaggerated, there is little doubt that Putin is entering the most challenging period of his long rule. Interviews with several people in the orbit of the Russian leader, as well as sources in the Russian business world and western intelligence officials, paint a picture of an isolated leader surrounded by an elite that is becoming rapidly disillusioned, both with the faltering war in Ukraine and the economic downturn at home.

“There’s definitely been a shift in mood among the elites this year … there is profound disappointment in Putin,” said a well-connected business leader, adding that there was “a growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming”.

“No one believes everything will suddenly collapse tomorrow,” the source said. “But there is a growing realisation that utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions keep being made. People who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.”

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